STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE HKY 10 WSW HSS 40 WNW TRI 10 E 5I3 20 W CRW 20 ESE ZZV
20 SE CAK 25 NNW YNG ERI 30 S BUF 45 W ELM 30 ENE PSB 30 SSW MRB
15 W RIC 15 NW RWI 20 NNW SOP 10 SE HKY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N BML 20 S PVD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 25 SW FMY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 15 S GNT
30 WSW GUP 50 SSW INW 70 ENE BLH 25 ENE RAL 10 ESE SBA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CEC
45 ESE EUG 25 S YKM 35 SE 4OM 63S 70 NNW 3TH 25 WNW BTM 35 NNW JAC
LND 35 W BFF 30 E SNY 30 S IML 50 NW GCK 30 NNE AMA 45 SSW CDS
30 NW SEP 65 SW TYR 30 NNW POE 20 W JAN 15 ESE CBM HSV 10 W LOZ
30 W UNI CLE.
...UPPER OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BENEATH REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALLOW
CURRENT BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A NARROW WEDGE
OF RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AS SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ALLOW
SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO RETURN UP THE OH
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. OF
MOST SIGNIFICANCE HOWEVER IS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING OBSERVED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS OH/KY. STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY
18Z WHERE LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 7 C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SW...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.
...CA...
12Z SOUNDING FROM OAK INDICATES STRONG COOLING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER AT OAK...WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL CAA...AND A MORNING
H5 TEMP OF MINUS 25C. STRONG HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH
SRN CA LATER DAY1 ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DIG INTO CENTRAL CA
DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
40S...AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY VALLEY
AREAS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SIZE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
...WEST TX...
AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND WEST TX LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MOIST AIR MASS TO RETURN NWWD UP THE RIO
GRANDE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TX LATER TODAY. STRONG HEATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND REGION. INCREASING LLJ
AFTER DARK SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 04/21/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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