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Apr-21-2003 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 SE HKY 10 WSW HSS 40 WNW TRI 10 E 5I3 20 W CRW 20 ESE ZZV
   20 SE CAK 25 NNW YNG ERI 30 S BUF 45 W ELM 30 ENE PSB 30 SSW MRB
   15 W RIC 15 NW RWI 20 NNW SOP 10 SE HKY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N BML 20 S PVD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 25 SW FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 15 S GNT
   30 WSW GUP 50 SSW INW 70 ENE BLH 25 ENE RAL 10 ESE SBA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CEC
   45 ESE EUG 25 S YKM 35 SE 4OM 63S 70 NNW 3TH 25 WNW BTM 35 NNW JAC
   LND 35 W BFF 30 E SNY 30 S IML 50 NW GCK 30 NNE AMA 45 SSW CDS
   30 NW SEP 65 SW TYR 30 NNW POE 20 W JAN 15 ESE CBM HSV 10 W LOZ
   30 W UNI CLE.
   
   
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT BENEATH REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALLOW
   CURRENT BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS TODAY.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A NARROW WEDGE
   OF RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AS SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ALLOW
   SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO RETURN UP THE OH
   VALLEY/APPALACHIANS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  OF
   MOST SIGNIFICANCE HOWEVER IS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING OBSERVED IN
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS OH/KY.  STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY
   18Z WHERE LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 7 C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. 
   AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
   FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE
   MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SW...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   ARE POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
   STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ...CA...
   
   12Z SOUNDING FROM OAK INDICATES STRONG COOLING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH
   A DEEP LAYER AT OAK...WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL CAA...AND A MORNING
   H5 TEMP OF MINUS 25C.  STRONG HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH
   SRN CA LATER DAY1 ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DIG INTO CENTRAL CA
   DURING PEAK HEATING.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
   40S...AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY VALLEY
   AREAS.  HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SIZE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   ...WEST TX...
   
   AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND WEST TX LOW LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MOIST AIR MASS TO RETURN NWWD UP THE RIO
   GRANDE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TX LATER TODAY.  STRONG HEATING OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND REGION.  INCREASING LLJ
   AFTER DARK SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR
   GUSTY WINDS AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION.
    
   ..DARROW.. 04/21/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
        
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