STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S P07 15 W BGS 35 ESE PVW 25 ENE LBL 35 NE GLD 35 E AKO
40 NNE LAR 45 N DGW 35 NNW OMA 35 NNW OTM 25 E MLI 20 ESE PIA
10 SSW SPI 45 WSW STL 40 ESE SZL 30 ENE EMP 30 SW SLN FSI
15 NW SAT 55 SSE LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 40 SE AGS
10 NE MGM 15 E JAN 30 SW GLH 30 S ELD 35 SSE SHV 30 ESE BPT
...CONT... 25 SSW P07 45 SSE MAF 25 ENE LBB 45 N AMA 20 SE RTN
25 ENE CEZ 10 W SGU 55 SW U31 45 NW SFO ...CONT... 50 WNW SLE YKM
10 SSE LWS 35 WSW BIL 10 NNW REJ 10 WSW HON 40 SSE MKT 25 SSW MKE
40 NW MIE 30 WNW EKN 15 ENE ACY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE DAB.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW VCNTY SWRN ORE SHOWS NO SIGN OF MOVING TODAY OR TONIGHT
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKY MTS. SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
ACROSS NRN MX INTO SRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE TAIL END OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE LOWER OH VLY NWWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PERIODIC TSTM EPISODES.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY...
OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO WANE AS LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS THIS
MORNING ACROSS KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE LARGE TSTM
CLUSTER HAS REINFORCED THE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NRN KS. AS CLOUD
CANOPY ERODES THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE...
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO RETURN NWD INTO
SRN NEB/NRN KS BY MID AFTERNOON. NEAR 60F DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG FROM SERN WY INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS.
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD AID IN TSTM INITIATION OVER SCNTRL NEB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER TSTMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SERN WY MTS.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS AND
VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL
SELY FLOW INVOF OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT IF TSTMS
CAN MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACCELERATION OF THE SLY LLJ AFTER SUNSET SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE
MCS/S WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/SWRN IA/NRN KS/NRN MO OVERNIGHT
WITH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
THE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
...WRN KS SWD INTO SWRN TX...
AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH...850-700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
MONDAY/S TEMPERATURES. THUS...CINH WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG
THE DRY LINE FROM WRN KS INTO SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE THE THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS OF W TX SWD INTO THE
SWRN TX MOUNTAINS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...LESS THAN
25 KTS...ACROSS THE SWRN KS-TX CAPROCK CORRIDOR...BUT A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS SWRN TX BENEATH SUBTROPICAL JET. THUS...THE
STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/ WILL BE
ACROSS SWRN TX IF PARCELS CAN BREACH THE CAP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
...CNTRL/SRN FL...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZE COLLISIONS/RESIDUAL
FRONT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. WHILE MIDLEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING OVER THE ERN GULF OF MX...AT LEAST THE
ERN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ISOLD STRONGER TSTMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
...GREAT BASIN...
7H-5H BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE NWRN UT DESERTS THIS
MORNING...AND MOVE CLOSER TO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN UT
BY AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THAT MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..RACY/TAYLOR.. 04/29/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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