STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
   SERN NEB...SRN IA...MO...WRN IL...ERN OK...AR AND NERN TX. THE MDT
   RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DAL 10 NNW DAL 25 S
   MLC 25 ENE TUL 20 NNE CNU 10 N TOP 10 SSE LNK 10 SSW OMA 45 WSW DSM
   15 SE OTM 30 ESE BRL 10 ENE SPI 25 SE BLV 25 ESE POF 40 E LIT 20 NW
   ELD 25 WNW SHV 45 SW TYR 40 S DAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ABI 45 E FSI
   35 NNW BVO 30 NW CNK 25 SSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40 NNE RAP 55 SW MBG
   30 W BKX RST 10 S SBN 20 S FWA 40 WSW LUK 35 SSE SDF 25 W GAD
   15 WNW SEM 15 NE ESF 50 SW LFK 55 SE DRT 25 N DRT 45 S ABI
   45 NE ABI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN
   20 NNE DIK 60 NE MBG 45 S FAR 20 SSE BRD 15 SSE DLH 25 W MQT
   25 W PLN 15 NNE OSC ...CONT... ERI 55 WSW MRB 20 WNW LYH
   30 WSW CAE 30 S MCN 20 W DHN 20 N MOB 35 W LFT 10 ENE HOU
   35 NW NIR 45 WNW LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 65 SSE MAF 50 NW ABI LTS
   50 W END 20 W HUT 15 SSW RSL 20 E GLD 30 SSE SNY 20 E DEN
   25 WNW TAD 20 NNE SAF 40 SE GNT 45 SW GNT 15 N FLG 30 ESE LAS
   50 W TPH 35 NW 4LW 15 N UIL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY
   35 ESE PIE 25 W ORL 20 SSE DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SAV
   50 SSE CAE 30 SSW SOP 25 E EWN.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WRN SD WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD
   THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
   AND UPPER-LEVEL JET EMERGING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER THIS
   MORNING WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS ROTATES AROUND MID-LEVEL
   LOW AND EJECTS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE...DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL KS AT 12Z WILL
   RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL IA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE OCCLUDING
   OVER SRN MN OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT DRYLINE WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS KS
   AND WRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
   JET STREAKS INCREASES IN THE DRY AIRMASS TO THE W. STRONG WAA E OF
   SURFACE/850MB CYCLONES WILL AID IN NWD MOVEMENT OF SURFACE WARM
   FRONT THROUGH IA AND IL INTO SRN PARTS OF MN/WI BY 05/00Z.
   
   --SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
   TONIGHT FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SWWD INTO NERN TX. SERN
   NEB/SRN IA...MO...WRN IL...AR...ERN OK AND NERN TX WILL HAVE THE
   GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES.--
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S/ WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ERN NEB EWD INTO IA AND MO WHERE STRONG
   MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AXIS OF 50-60KT LLJ. 
   THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
   WILL PERSIST N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
   ACROSS NRN IA WHERE STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
   MODERATE AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL COEXIST. LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR AT THIS
   TIME ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN IL AS OVERNIGHT MCS PROGRESSES EWD.
   
   ADDITIONAL...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA SWD
   INTO ERN KS/WRN MO. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING WITH THE UPPER-
   LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AGEOSTROPHIC
   ADJUSTMENTS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/ENHANCED
   CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG BULGING DRYLINE. SLY 50-
   60KT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS NWD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
   DRYLINE WITH AN AXIS OF 60-65F DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR N AS SRN
   IA BY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
   2000-3000 J/KG FROM SRN IA SWD IN AR. THIS COMBINATION OF
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW
   STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF
   200-400 M2/S2 WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH
   SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /I.E. RELATIVELY LOW
   LCL HEIGHTS/.
   
   THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS ACROSS SRN IA/MO BEFORE CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A
   LINEAR /OR BOWING/ SYSTEM AS OCCLUDING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
   APPROACHES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
   INCREASE MARKEDLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS IL INTO IND WHERE NOSE OF 70-
   80KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IMPINGES ON SQUALL LINE.
   
   LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   BENEATH MID-LEVEL LOW OVER N-CNTRL NEB INTO SRN SD WHERE VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES
   APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.      
   
   ...SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS...
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE
   FROM ERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX. HERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
   TO LOWER 70S AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000
   J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55KTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR
   SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN
   LOCATIONS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND BULGING DRYLINE...ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
   
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS ALONG THE FRONT
   OVERNIGHT FROM WRN TN SWWD INTO SERN TX. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
   LINE WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL WITH THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
   WHICH WILL MITIGATE OVERALL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SHORT
   SEGMENTED BOWS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF WIND
   DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM WRN TN SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN AR.      
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY...
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS MS
   NWD INTO TN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   INCREASES ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   TSTMS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 05/04/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z