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May- 4-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS/WRN
   MO/WRN AR/ERN OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DUA 35 WSW JLN
   20 NNE TOP 15 N STJ P35 25 SSE IRK 15 ENE TBN 35 SSW UNO 15 SSE HOT
   30 ENE PRX 35 NE DUA.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 S DAL DAL DUA TUL 20 E EMP 25 NE MHK BIE OMA 45 WSW DSM OTM
   30 ESE BRL 25 SSW DEC 25 WNW EVV 35 SE PAH 25 S MEM GGG 45 SW TYR
   40 S DAL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 N MWL 15 WSW ADM 30 NE PNC 25 SSE CNK 50 NE HLC 50 SW MHN
   35 N CDR PHP 30 W BKX RST 15 ENE MSN 30 E SBN 20 N DAY 20 ENE JKL
   30 ESE CHA 20 SE CBM 35 ENE MLU 50 SW LFK HDO 55 NNE DRT
   15 WNW BWD 20 N MWL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CHS 15 SSE AUO
   10 NW MCB 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 10 E COT 50 ESE P07
   30 SSW ABI 45 E SPS 25 NNE OKC 40 SSW ICT 25 WSW HUT 15 SSE HLC
   15 NNW IML 45 NW AKO 10 E DEN 50 WSW COS 15 S DRO 15 W PGA
   45 E U31 20 ESE 4LW 10 NNW DLS 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NE MOT
   40 SW DVL 35 ESE JMS OSC ...CONT... 25 SW ERI 10 NW LBE SHD
   15 ESE RDU 30 SW ILM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ VRB.
   
   
   ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS STILL
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
   MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO SERN NEB..AS DRY LINE
   FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK THIS AFTERNOON.  EARLIER MCS
   OVER MO HAS REINFORCED WARM FRONT FROM NEAR THE NERN KS/SERN NEB
   BORDER SSEWD INTO CENTRAL AR...WHICH THEN EXTENDS MORE ESEWD INTO
   CENTRAL MS/SRN AL.  THOUGH STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
   CONVECTION WILL HINDER NWD MOTION FOR A WHILE...STRONG PRESSURE
   FALLS AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL AID IN QUICKLY LIFTING THIS
   BOUNDARY NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND INTO NRN MO/SWRN IA BY THE
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  IN ITS WAKE...A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
   WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY LINE WHERE MLCAPES WILL EXCEED
   2500 J/KG.  MOSTLY LIKELY AREA OF MOIST-CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
   EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY
   NERN OK FROM 18Z-20Z...WHERE STRONGEST LIFT NORTH OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD INCREASING CONVERGENCE AT THE
   SURFACE.  STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS.  DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN OK AND
   INTO NRN/ERN TX...AS WELL AS INTO NRN LA/AR AND POSSIBLY NRN MS/WRN
   TN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER JET BECOMES MORE WLY
   AND STRONG HEATING ERODES CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR.  THE THREATS OF
   TORNADOES... INCLUDING LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND VERY
   LARGE HAIL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  VERY POTENT
   COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   DEEP LIFTING INDICATE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE LIKELY FROM THE MID
   AFTERNOON UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
   SUPERCELLS/LEWPS DURING THE EVENING FROM ERN IA ACROSS THE MID MS
   RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD EWD WELL AWAY FROM SURFACE FRONT...AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
   THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS TOWARDS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
   THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
   
   ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/04/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
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