STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS/WRN
MO/WRN AR/ERN OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DUA 35 WSW JLN
20 NNE TOP 15 N STJ P35 25 SSE IRK 15 ENE TBN 35 SSW UNO 15 SSE HOT
30 ENE PRX 35 NE DUA.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 S DAL DAL DUA TUL 20 E EMP 25 NE MHK BIE OMA 45 WSW DSM OTM
30 ESE BRL 25 SSW DEC 25 WNW EVV 35 SE PAH 25 S MEM GGG 45 SW TYR
40 S DAL.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N MWL 15 WSW ADM 30 NE PNC 25 SSE CNK 50 NE HLC 50 SW MHN
35 N CDR PHP 30 W BKX RST 15 ENE MSN 30 E SBN 20 N DAY 20 ENE JKL
30 ESE CHA 20 SE CBM 35 ENE MLU 50 SW LFK HDO 55 NNE DRT
15 WNW BWD 20 N MWL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CHS 15 SSE AUO
10 NW MCB 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 10 E COT 50 ESE P07
30 SSW ABI 45 E SPS 25 NNE OKC 40 SSW ICT 25 WSW HUT 15 SSE HLC
15 NNW IML 45 NW AKO 10 E DEN 50 WSW COS 15 S DRO 15 W PGA
45 E U31 20 ESE 4LW 10 NNW DLS 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NE MOT
40 SW DVL 35 ESE JMS OSC ...CONT... 25 SW ERI 10 NW LBE SHD
15 ESE RDU 30 SW ILM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ VRB.
...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO SERN NEB..AS DRY LINE
FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER MCS
OVER MO HAS REINFORCED WARM FRONT FROM NEAR THE NERN KS/SERN NEB
BORDER SSEWD INTO CENTRAL AR...WHICH THEN EXTENDS MORE ESEWD INTO
CENTRAL MS/SRN AL. THOUGH STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL HINDER NWD MOTION FOR A WHILE...STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL AID IN QUICKLY LIFTING THIS
BOUNDARY NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND INTO NRN MO/SWRN IA BY THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY LINE WHERE MLCAPES WILL EXCEED
2500 J/KG. MOSTLY LIKELY AREA OF MOIST-CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY
NERN OK FROM 18Z-20Z...WHERE STRONGEST LIFT NORTH OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD INCREASING CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN OK AND
INTO NRN/ERN TX...AS WELL AS INTO NRN LA/AR AND POSSIBLY NRN MS/WRN
TN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER JET BECOMES MORE WLY
AND STRONG HEATING ERODES CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR. THE THREATS OF
TORNADOES... INCLUDING LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. VERY POTENT
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
DEEP LIFTING INDICATE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE LIKELY FROM THE MID
AFTERNOON UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS DURING THE EVENING FROM ERN IA ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EWD WELL AWAY FROM SURFACE FRONT...AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS TOWARDS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/04/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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