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May- 4-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 SE ADM 20 NNE BVO 15 NW TOP BIE LNK 25 S OMA 15 N P35 35 W COU
   10 ESE HRO 25 WSW HOT 30 W PRX 10 SE ADM.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 SE DAL 15 S FTW 35 NNW FTW 35 S EMP 20 ESE MHK 25 SW BIE
   45 NW CNK 20 SSE EAR 20 ENE EAR OLU 25 NE OMA 25 SW OTM 30 NNE UIN
   35 SSE SPI 35 SE MVN 45 SW CKV 20 SW TUP 35 SSW GLH 25 W SHV
   40 SE DAL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 WSW MWL 30 E SPS 25 NNE OKC 40 ENE ICT 10 SSW MHK 20 ENE CNK
   35 NNE GCK 55 NW GCK 20 SSW GLD 10 E MCK 35 NNW BUB 10 SE FSD
   35 WSW LSE 30 ENE JVL 25 NNW FWA 15 NNE DAY 20 N JKL 15 SE CHA
   30 W BHM JAN 45 SSW LFK HDO 40 SSW JCT 30 NW JCT 45 WSW MWL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS 10 E COT
   50 ESE P07 30 SSW ABI SPS 35 NW OKC 20 N ICT 25 WSW SLN 15 SSW GCK
   45 SSE LHX 35 NNE ALS 15 S DRO 15 W PGA 45 E U31 20 ESE 4LW
   10 NNW DLS 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NE MOT 40 SW DVL 35 ESE JMS
   OSC ...CONT... ERI 10 NW LBE SHD 15 ESE RDU 30 SW ILM ...CONT...
   20 E CHS 15 SSE AUO 25 ESE MCB 25 ESE BPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ VRB.
   
   
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   A DRY LINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB SWD THROUGH ERN
   KS/CNTRL OK AND INTO NCNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
   SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NEB/NERN KS...SRN MO AND INTO THE
   SERN U.S.. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN KS. A
   VORT MAX IS MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN KS WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER JET
   LIFTING NEWD AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX...ERN OK...
   ERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB. MLCAPES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG IN
   THIS REGION. E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THESE
   CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE W. THE MID LEVEL JET EJECTING 
   NEWD AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND OVERSPREADING THE STRONG LOW
   LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN MUCH OF THE
   WARM SECTOR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300
   M2/S2 AND DEEP SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE FROM NCNTRL TX THROUGH
   ERN OK AND INTO ERN KS. OTHER SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN
   COMMA HEAD REGION OF SERN NEB. VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG
   TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH RISK AREA.
   ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN
   RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL
   JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH THETA-E AIR NEWD THIS EVENING
   AND OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY.
   ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT DEVELOPS EWD
   OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL EXISTS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD
   FRONT IN WRN KS SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH WRN KS.
   
    
   ..DIAL.. 05/04/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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