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May- 8-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphics (more info)
Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
2000 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   2000 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   2000 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB AND
   NORTH CENTRAL OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SLN 25 SW CNK 40 WNW
   CNK 20 SSE HSI 35 E HSI LNK 35 SSE OMA 35 ENE FNB 15 ENE MKC 30 NNW
   JLN 30 E TUL 40 NNW MLC 35 WNW MLC 50 NNE ADM 45 SE OKC 35 SE OKC
   20 ESE OKC 35 NNE OKC 10 SSW ICT SLN.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUT
   15 ESE RSL 35 N RSL 30 SW MCK 25 ESE IML 30 S BBW 25 NNW GRI
   35 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 25 NE LWD 35 NNE SZL 15 SW SGF 10 W FSM
   30 NE DUA 20 W DUA 25 SW ADM 45 WSW ADM 40 SE FSI 20 NNE END
   20 W ICT HUT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 NE ECG 20 NNW DAN HSS HSV 20 N UOX LIT 45 SE PGO PRX 10 N ACT
   40 NW AUS 50 NNW SAT 10 S JCT 25 NW JCT 35 ENE SJT 35 NNE FSI
   40 SSW END 20 NNW P28 20 S HLC 45 SE AKO 20 ENE AKO 30 ESE SNY
   45 NNW IML 25 NNW BUB OTG 30 ENE MKT 30 SSE EAU 30 S CWA 35 N MKE
   AZO 20 SSW FDY 35 SE DAY UNI 15 NNE PKB 25 WNW MGW 35 SW AOO
   35 S CXY 20 S ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DRT 35 NNE FSI
   25 NW P28 35 SSW HLC GLD 10 ESE COS 20 NNE DRO 50 NNW NID
   50 NW SFO ...CONT... 10 SW OTH 25 W RDM 40 SE BKE 15 WSW 4BQ
   50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 60 NNW GFK 40 WNW BRD 20 NNE RHI DTW
   ...CONT... 20 ENE ERI 15 S JFK ...CONT... 15 SE CHS TUP 40 SSW HOT
   45 ESE DAL 10 WNW LRD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 35 SSW HUL
   20 S BGR 15 SE CON 35 W GFL 20 ESE MSS.
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN KS WITH A DRYLINE
   EXTENDING S FROM COLBY KS TO CHILDRESS TX. SFC THERMAL RIDGE
   EXTENDED NWD FROM NW OK INTO CNTRL KS WITH CELLS INCREASING ACROSS
   NWRN-CNTRL KS BEHIND CLEARING LINE. TOWERING CU IS ALSO DEVELOPING
   IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WCNTRL OK. THESE TWO AREAS
   APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AREAS FARTHER S POSSIBLY
   HOLDING OFF LONGER...SEE MCD 850/851/852. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING...IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT AND STRONG
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. AS
   THE SUPERCELLS MOVE N AND EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS...TORNADOES/LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
   AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
   TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN KS WERE CLOUD HEIGHTS
   WILL BE LOWER WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 600 TO 800 METERS. THIS AREA HAS
   CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WAS E OF AN APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO BACKED E AND N OF THE SFC
   LOW WHICH HAVE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES TO OVER 300 M2/S2.
   SUPERCELLS FURTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK WILL ALSO HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   LIKELY.  IF THE CAP CAN BREAK INTO CENTRAL TX...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
   KT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...
   STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   KEEP SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES GOING WITH A BROKEN LINE MOVING ACROSS
   ERN NE/ERN KS/ERN OK. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEAR LIKELY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
   CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR ACROSS IA/MO WITH A TRANSITION
   TO SQUALL-LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
   ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS MO/NRN TN/SRN KY.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS DEVELOPING
   ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES AROUND 50 KT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT.
    
   ...MID ATLANTIC...
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
   SEWD ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE CENTRAL/SERN VA COAST INTO THE EVENING.
   AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/08/03
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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