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May-10-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
1630 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   1630 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   1630 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK...NWRN AR...
   EXTREME SERN KS...MO...SERN IA...IL...IN..OH AND NRN KY TO THE
   RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MKO 35 NE TUL 30 ENE MKC 15 ESE LWD OTM
   30 SE CID 30 SW RFD 20 NNE MMO LAF 15 N MIE 35 N DAY 20 NNW CMH 15
   WSW ZZV 15 E UNI 30 SW HTS 25 N BWG 60 NNW LIT 15 NE PGO 20 WSW
   MKO.
   
   SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS
   ERN OK...NERN TX...AR...NWRN MS...TN...NWRN NC...WRN VA...WV..SRN
   LWR MI...AND SERN WI TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ADM TUL 45
   S OJC LWD 15 NNW CID MKE 20 NNE AZO 20 S CLE 15 NNE HLG 35 E EKN 45
   ESE LYH 35 ESE GSO 30 NNW HSS 20 N CSV 55 SW BNA UOX 40 W GLH 25
   NNE SHV TYR 40 E DAL 20 SSW DUA 30 ENE ADM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
   PSB 25 ENE SBY ...CONT... 30 S EWN HKY 30 SSW TYS 40 NNE BPT SAT
   JCT 35 E ABI BVO 45 E EMP TOP 35 SSE FOD 40 E MCW CWA 50 S ESC
   20 ENE PLN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 20 SSW FAY GSP
   ANB MCB 25 E LCH CRP 55 NNW MFE 55 WNW MFE ...CONT... 25 SSE P07
   35 W SJT 35 NW ABI 25 NE PNC 30 WSW EMP RSL 10 S GLD 45 NNW CAO
   ALS BCE MLF ELY U31 65 N SAC 30 W MHS ONP 20 WNW CLM ...CONT...
   35 NE 63S LWS BOI 40 SW SUN IDA JAC WRL 50 SSE 81V AIA LBF GRI
   30 S FSD RWF 60 ENE STC 10 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 W ART 15 SE ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 10 WNW PBI
   30 NW MIA 55 WNW MIA 20 SE FMY 25 NNW FMY 15 NNE SRQ 45 NNE PIE
   35 SSE GNV 30 WNW DAB 20 S DAB VRB.
   
   ...A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG TO
   VIOLENT TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS
   AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
   NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN TX. A
   90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
   EJECT UPPER LOW RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS
   EVENING...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY. ANOTHER JET MAX WILL EXTEND FROM NERN TX NEWD INTO KY WITH
   THE DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE RESULTING IN STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT/LIFT
   ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
   CENTRAL KS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON
   AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WI TONIGHT. 
   
   ...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   IL/INDIANA WITH AN APPARENT MCV LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. 
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE MCV INTO SRN INDIANA AND IS
   LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR MCV AND WARM FRONT...WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR NUMEROUS TORNADOES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS INDIANA AND
   INTO SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVES
   INTO  WV AND EVENTUALLY THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TORNADOES WILL
   REMAIN A THREAT....THOUGH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIND
   DAMAGE MAY BECOME THE GREATER THREAT. 
   
   SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR STL WWD
   INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN
   MO...BUT HAS STALLED ON THE WRN END. AS STRONG FORCING SPREADS INTO
   THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EXPLOSIVELY FROM NWRN MO
   SWWD INTO OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAD STABILIZED
   NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW
   MOVES NEWD AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
   ERN HALF OF OK/SERN KS...SPREADS RAPIDLY NEWD. MLCAPES WILL EXCEED
   3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND 60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
   DIFFLUENCE AND 1 KM SRH OF 300-350 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY
   STRONG TORNADOES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN
   OK/NWRN AR NEWD ACROSS INTO MO AND SERN IA. HAIL AS LARGE AS
   BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 100 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
   STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. 
   
   FORECAST DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WOULD ENHANCE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS...WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN MO/IL AND POSSIBLY WRN KY. 
   THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN INTENSE
   SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE
   TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WINDS VEER IN THE
   LOWER LEVELS. TORNADOES WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GREATEST
   SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
   EVENT. 
   
   ..IMY.. 05/10/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
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