STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 45 N ALM
35 ENE LVS 45 E TAD 30 NW LAA 35 SSE AKO 25 N AKO 40 WNW BFF
25 SE CPR 55 SSW TWF 65 SE 4LW 25 W 4LW 30 SSW RDM 35 S YKM
15 NW EPH 25 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NE HVR 25 WSW GGW 10 W DIK
30 SSW ABR 30 SSW YKN 15 SW OMA MKC 25 NNW UMN 40 ESE PGO POE
15 SSW 7R4.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MIA
25 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 25 S TLH 10 SE VLD 20 SSE SSI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 10 SSW ORH
15 SW PSF 10 E ITH 25 N BUF.
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION
TODAY...WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN
CO/NM BY THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF TX/OK
OVERNIGHT.
...SERN NM/WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EVENING. MID
LEVEL CAP IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT INITIATION OF STORMS
OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK LATE TONIGHT...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE
VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..HART/NADEN.. 05/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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