Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

May-15-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphics (more info)
Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
2000 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   2000 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   2000 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
(Select thumbnails to view full images)
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...WRN OK AND NWRN TX TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 ESE PVW 35 S DHT 35 W EHA 10 NW LBL 25 N GAG 35 NNE CSM
   15 NW FSI 30 SW SPS 65 SSE CDS 45 ESE PVW.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN
   CO...SWRN KS...SRN PLAINS OF WEST TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL
   TX TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BGS 20 ESE LBB 25 WNW PVW 30
   NNW TCC 15 WSW LHX 45 NE LAA 35 NE GCK 35 ESE DDC 35 ESE P28 40 ESE
   OKC 40 SW DUA 25 ENE SEP 25 WSW ABI 60 NE BGS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 ESE ILM 35 SE AHN 25 ESE HSV 40 NNW MSL 20 W HOP 40 NNE EVV
   30 ESE FWA 10 NE MFD ZZV 20 ESE CRW 30 SSW CHO 15 NNW RIC
   25 SSW WAL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 WSW BGS 55 W LBB 25 S CVS 35 ENE LVS 45 WNW TAD 35 N COS
   30 SW AKO 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW JLN 15 WNW FYV 10 SSW FSM 25 WNW TXK
   20 SSW TYR 30 SSW JCT 45 ENE P07 15 WSW BGS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW JHW PSB
   15 SSE CXY 20 ENE ACY ...CONT... 25 NW BVE 25 NW LCH 45 ESE CLL
   20 ESE SAT 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 10 SE P07 25 W MAF 50 SSE SAF
   30 SSE INW 15 NE SGU 65 WSW ELY 35 SSE EKO 20 SSE OWY 15 NW BOI
   60 WSW 27U 25 ENE S80 15 SW PUW 40 E SLE 10 NNE 4BK ...CONT...
   70 NNW DVL 45 ENE MBG 30 E MHN 25 SW EAR 10 E MKC 25 SW MTO
   25 SE CGX LAN 35 NNE MTC.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   VERY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES.  IN FACT...UPSTREAM 12 UTC FGZ SOUNDING SHOWED EVIDENCE OF
   A TROPOPAUSE FOLD WITH STRONG WARMING AOA 400 MB.  LEADING EDGE OF
   THE STRONG DCVA APPEARS TO BE EMERGING ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS ATTM...AND IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ERN CO-WRN KS-OK/TX
   PNHDLS BETWEEN 21-00 UTC.  
   
   SPECIAL 18 UTC AMA RAOB SHOWED THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAD
   DEEPENED...WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
   WEST OF THE CAPROCK.  RICH MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE NEAR 8
   C/KM MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF
   2500-3000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH.  THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
   STAGE IS SET FOR THE HIGHER BASED TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE
   NRN NM/SRN CO MOUNTAINS TO ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RAPIDLY
   BECOME SEVERE BY 21-22 UTC.  ADDITIONAL TCU FIELD FARTHER EAST IN
   THE NWRN TX PNHDL NWD INTO EXTREME SERN CO MAY ERUPT INTO TSTMS AS
   WELL.  
   
   PROFILERS/VWPS SHOW STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW OF NEARLY 80 KTS IS
   ROUNDING BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL NM AND THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO MOVE INTO THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK THROUGH TONIGHT.  FORECAST
   SHEAR VECTORS AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY TEND TO BECOME LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED
   MESOCYCLONES FROM AMA NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...
   FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER LIVED DISCRETE
   ELEMENTS...GENERALLY WHERE STRONGER BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
   EXIST.  
   
   THIS AFTERNOON/S MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED BACKED LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OK INTO THE TX PNHDL...GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
   AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT.  AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD INCREASE...ENLARGING THE ALREADY LOOPY HODOGRAPHS.  THIS
   SHOULD INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT FROM TX/OK PNHDLS SEWD INTO WRN
   OK/NWRN TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES. 
   OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.   
   
   ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR MCS/S AND MOVE
   ESEWD ACROSS KS...OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX OVERNIGHT.  THREAT FOR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN AND LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE.
   
   ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC...
   A COUPLE MCS/S CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE KY COALFIELDS
   AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  WRN-MOST TSTM CLUSTERS SEEM TO BE TIED
   TO A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.  ACTIVITY
   SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION LATER THIS
   EVENING. 
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MIDLEVEL JETLET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...
   INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN MT.  A
   COUPLE OF HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN LACK OF
   MOISTURE...ONLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...MAINLY OF
   THE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND VARIETY.
      
   ..RACY.. 05/15/03
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home