STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE STC 15 E OFK 20 ENE HLC 20 NNE LAA 35 N COS 15 ESE LAR
45 SE RAP 45 SE JMS 25 NNW BJI 40 SW HIB 30 ESE STC.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E JAX 20 N GNV 20 WSW CTY ...CONT... 35 SW HUM 40 SSE MCB
30 W MEI 35 ESE TUP 15 ENE HSV 45 ENE RMG 20 SSE AHN 30 SSE AGS
25 SSW CHS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW GGW 45 W GGW
65 NW MLS 60 ESE MLS 25 E DIK 50 SE ISN 50 N MOT ...CONT...
30 NNW ELO 55 NNE MSP 20 WNW MCW 30 SW MHK 25 W GCK 35 NNW CAO
40 NE SAF 55 SW GUP 15 NW FLG 45 WNW GCN 30 SSE CDC 50 W 4HV
35 ENE PUC 20 E RKS 40 SSW LND 25 NNE BPI 55 WNW IDA 20 NNE BOI
55 WSW BKE 50 SE DLS 25 SW YKM 10 SW EAT 40 SSW 63S 80 WNW FCA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE 7R4 40 N LFT
35 NE MLU 25 WNW MEM 40 SE MVN 30 WSW BMG 40 ESE IND 45 SE DAY
20 WSW UNI 25 SW CRW 10 ESE TRI 15 E AVL 30 SW CLT 20 ENE ILM.
...SERN U.S....
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER MS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS
ESEWD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
WRN TX SWD THROUGH MS AND INTO THE NW GULF. WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SRN SC NWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA. STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS
AL. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY OR REDEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
DESTABILIZE TODAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY
LIMIT HEATING IN SOME AREAS. WHERE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. MARGINAL
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY WITH
STORMS THAT MOVE NEWD AND INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL GA.
...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED TODAY AND SURGE SWD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
CONCURRENT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD INTO SRN CANADA OUT
OF BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A LEE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN PRE-
FRONTAL REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ONCE HEATING COMMENCES.
STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR HIGH PLAINS
OF WY/CO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKER CAP. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY DURING EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
ENHANCES LIFT ALONG SWD SURGING FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS
MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL.. 05/18/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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