STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD
   ...CONT... 25 SE FHU 45 NW SAD 15 ENE SOW 25 WNW GNT 50 S ALS
   25 NW LIC 50 SSW PHP 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 40 NW ELO 30 S MSP
   25 W OMA 20 E DDC 35 W END 20 WSW MKO 45 ENE PBF 20 ENE BWG
   10 S BWI 15 NE ACY ...CONT... 30 SE ECG 30 ESE FAY 35 S AGS
   15 W AYS 35 SE GNV 30 NNE MIA.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN U.S. WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH
   A RIDGE BUILDING EWD OVER THE NWRN STATES AND WRN CANADA...WITH A
   DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SWRN TX NEWD TO
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
   SHIFTS NEWD FROM ERN WI INTO CANADA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
   THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT REMAINS NEARLY
   STATIONARY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
   GULF COAST STATES.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
   A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S/ WILL REMAIN
   IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE
   RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN ONLY
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY FROM SERN MS INTO
   CENTRAL AL AND NRN GA.  HOWEVER...THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE
   FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT ALLOW
   STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE.
   
   ...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN THIS MORNING PER WV IMAGERY
   WILL MOVE INTO NERN MN/ONTARIO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION AROUND 00Z...WITHIN NWLY
   FLOW ALOFT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS BY
   EARLY EVENING...AND SHIFT EWD TO THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER OVERNIGHT.
   SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE NWD TODAY WITH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
   FROM ERN SD INTO ERN ND.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...THE
   LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES BELOW
   500 J/KG.  
   
   AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH AROUND 00Z...SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
   800-500 MB WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
   TROUGH.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
   BE LOW-TOPPED...WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY NOT SUPPORTING ANY
   SEVERE.  A SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT THIS EVENING
   ACROSS ERN SD INTO WRN MN...AIDING IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO
   WRN MN OVERNIGHT WITHIN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WAA.  
    
   ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 05/21/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z