STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 S LTS 45 NNW BGS 30 SSE ROW 30 SW DHT 10 NW LAA 20 N AKO
10 NNW BFF 15 E CDR 35 ENE ANW 10 N OMA 10 ESE FNB 30 N CNU
25 WNW TUL 15 E OKC 30 S LTS.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLF
25 SSW HSS 30 ESE TYS 30 ESE LOZ 15 N UNI 15 WSW CAK 20 WNW YNG
15 SSE JHW 35 S DUJ BLF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSW CHS 30 NNW CHS 30 SW FLO 15 N FLO 15 SSE SOP 20 ESE RDU
60 NE RWI 25 NE ORF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 W AGS
CHA 55 N CSV 15 SW CMH 20 S FDY 25 E SBN 15 ESE MBL 35 E PLN
...CONT... 10 WSW MSS ELM 20 NNE BWI 10 S ACY ...CONT... 70 W RRT
25 SSE GFK 30 NNW ATY 15 SSW BKX 10 S FSD 45 E SUX 40 NW LWD
45 SSE P35 25 NNW HRO 20 SW HRO 35 ESE FSM 20 SSW PGO 35 NNW PRX
35 NNW DAL 20 E SEP 25 WNW TPL 15 WSW AUS 35 NW SAT 15 SW JCT
35 WSW SJT 60 SSE MAF 30 ENE FST 40 ENE MRF 80 SSE MRF ...CONT...
40 SSE DMN DMN 35 NW SVC 55 NNE SAD 25 NNW INW 35 SW BCE
20 SSE MLF 40 SSE U24 45 WSW PUC 10 E PUC 55 S VEL 55 NNE GJT
30 SE CAG 45 ENE CAG 25 SE RWL 30 SSW BPI 45 S JAC 45 NNE JAC
30 WNW COD 25 W SHR 30 ENE SHR 35 NNE 81V 20 S REJ 40 ENE REJ
25 NW Y22 15 SSW ISN 55 N ISN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE BIH 60 N NID
20 E FAT 35 NE MER 40 WSW TVL 25 SSW SVE 45 NNW SVE 10 SE 4LW
45 ENE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 70 ESE BNO 50 N OWY 35 SSE TWF 45 NW ENV
25 E EKO 15 E WMC 30 NNW LOL 20 SW NFL 45 W TPH 65 SE BIH.
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH
STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND
THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED AND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SEWD ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF
THE WRN UPPER RIDGE AND...IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ESEWD. AS
UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER MI/OH AREA...STRONGER CYCLONIC MID LEVEL
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND SOUTHEAST...AND WILL AID IN EJECTING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...FROM GA NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS.
...GREAT PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
DAY ON THE NRN/ERN EDGE OF PLAINS INSTABILITY AXIS...ACROSS CNTRL
SECTIONS OF KS/NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HEATING AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK AND BECOME MORE SELY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ON THE ERN EDGE OF INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER RIDGE...COUPLED
WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER TRANSPORT
OF HIGHER MIXING RATIO VALUES NWD AND WWD...WILL RESULT IN A BROAD
BAND OF MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING FROM SERN NM/WEST TX
NWD TO ERN CO/WRN KS AND THE NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS AND DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES SLIDING SEWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR TSTM
INITIATION WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST DEVELOP ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/CO AND THEN SPREAD GENERALLY EAST INTO
THE GREATER INSTABILITY. LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING...BUT
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE STORMS MAY BE WIDELY DISPERSED ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S MAY EVOLVE FROM THE
POCKETS OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WELL INTO THE NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING
SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
...OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F/ DEVELOPING
NEWD WITHIN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS
THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS OR
BOWED SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION PRODUCING A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS FROM
ERN KY/WV AREA NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA THROUGH EVENING.
...ERN CAROLINAS...
AS STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACCELERATES NEWD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO INCREASE TO
45-50KT AT 850MB AND RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS SPREADING INLAND FROM
THE GULF STREAM. FCST HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT WERE INDICATING VERY STRONG SFC-1KM SHEAR/SRH SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW
LCL/LFC FURTHER SUGGESTS A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADOES...OR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS.
..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/23/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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