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May-24-2003 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 SSE SEP 20 E SJT 50 SSE MAF 25 WSW INK 25 S ROW 60 SSE LVS
   45 SW PUB 25 W DEN 10 ESE FCL 30 WNW AKO 50 WNW GLD 45 WNW GCK
   25 SW DDC P28 35 ENE HUT 20 ESE MHK 10 SSE FLV SZL 20 WSW TBN
   30 WNW UNO 30 NNW LIT 25 NNE SHV 15 SE TYR 25 SSE SEP.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 ESE BNO 45 SW BNO 45 SE RDM 45 ENE RDM 20 W PDT 30 WNW ALW
   20 S 63S 35 ENE 63S 15 WNW S06 20 SE S80 60 NNW BOI 45 ESE BNO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR
   75 WNW MLS 4BQ 25 NNE 81V 40 SE RAP 50 NNW MHN 45 SSW ANW
   25 ESE ANW 20 WNW 9V9 55 NNE MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRP 20 N ALI
   65 W COT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W RRT 15 WNW DSM
   45 SSE UIN 10 E STL 15 ENE CGI 35 SW MKL 20 N GWO 15 SW JAN
   25 SSE HEZ 20 WSW 7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF 15 W GDP
   15 S ALM 30 ESE TCS 75 ESE SOW 30 SW GUP 80 S 4BL 10 E U17
   35 ENE BCE 15 NNW MLF 45 SSE ELY 40 W ELY 40 SE U31 55 NNW TPH
   30 WNW TPH 70 ESE BIH 40 NNE DAG 10 E DAG 25 ENE EDW 30 NE BFL
   40 W TVL 35 WSW SVE 50 ENE UKI 40 E EKA 40 SE PDX 20 ENE BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK
   25 SSW MPV 10 WSW PSF 25 N JFK 20 SSE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PFN TOI
   35 S ANB 40 S RMG 30 NW AHN 45 WSW AVL 25 SSE TRI 35 SSW PSK
   10 NE SSU 15 SE EKN 35 E MGW 30 ESE CAK 20 WSW TOL AZO 40 WNW MKG
   50 E MQT.
   
   
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
   
   EARLY MORNING MCS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN KS AT
   ROUGHLY 30-40KT WITH EMBEDDED...MATURING MVC NEAR MHK.  THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGGING SEWD
   ACROSS THE MO VALLEY.  IT APPEARS MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF KS INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO BY MID DAY WITH ANY
   SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EXTREME
   ERN OK INTO SRN MO.  RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
   CLOUD DEBRIS/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  EVEN
   SO...SBCAPES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MARGINALLY-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG EXPECTED.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
   MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES.
   
   FARTHER WEST...IT APPEARS STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO...SWD INTO WEST TX
   WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC
   VALUES...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM.  ELY COMPONENT ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEEPENS.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
   50S...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH 20-25KT NWLY FLOW
   ALOFT.  STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND ROUGHLY 30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERING OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. 
   LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  BY
   EARLY EVENING ONE OR MORE SEWD-MOVING MCS/S COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS/NWRN TX.  OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
   SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
   PERSISTS ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  GIVEN MARGINAL
   SHEAR...MODERATE RISK IS NOT WARRANTED.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS UPPER
   SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST.  TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
   WA/ORE WHILE INTERIOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS RAPIDLY IN THE ABSENCE
   OF CLOUDINESS.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODIFIED INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR STRONG HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.  MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FAST-MOVING ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
   IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CORES CAN DEVELOP...ENHANCING
   DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
    
   ..DARROW.. 05/24/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
        
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