STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE SEP 20 E SJT 50 SSE MAF 25 WSW INK 25 S ROW 60 SSE LVS
45 SW PUB 25 W DEN 10 ESE FCL 30 WNW AKO 50 WNW GLD 45 WNW GCK
25 SW DDC P28 35 ENE HUT 20 ESE MHK 10 SSE FLV SZL 20 WSW TBN
30 WNW UNO 30 NNW LIT 25 NNE SHV 15 SE TYR 25 SSE SEP.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ESE BNO 45 SW BNO 45 SE RDM 45 ENE RDM 20 W PDT 30 WNW ALW
20 S 63S 35 ENE 63S 15 WNW S06 20 SE S80 60 NNW BOI 45 ESE BNO.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR
75 WNW MLS 4BQ 25 NNE 81V 40 SE RAP 50 NNW MHN 45 SSW ANW
25 ESE ANW 20 WNW 9V9 55 NNE MOT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRP 20 N ALI
65 W COT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W RRT 15 WNW DSM
45 SSE UIN 10 E STL 15 ENE CGI 35 SW MKL 20 N GWO 15 SW JAN
25 SSE HEZ 20 WSW 7R4.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF 15 W GDP
15 S ALM 30 ESE TCS 75 ESE SOW 30 SW GUP 80 S 4BL 10 E U17
35 ENE BCE 15 NNW MLF 45 SSE ELY 40 W ELY 40 SE U31 55 NNW TPH
30 WNW TPH 70 ESE BIH 40 NNE DAG 10 E DAG 25 ENE EDW 30 NE BFL
40 W TVL 35 WSW SVE 50 ENE UKI 40 E EKA 40 SE PDX 20 ENE BLI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK
25 SSW MPV 10 WSW PSF 25 N JFK 20 SSE NEL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PFN TOI
35 S ANB 40 S RMG 30 NW AHN 45 WSW AVL 25 SSE TRI 35 SSW PSK
10 NE SSU 15 SE EKN 35 E MGW 30 ESE CAK 20 WSW TOL AZO 40 WNW MKG
50 E MQT.
...SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
EARLY MORNING MCS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN KS AT
ROUGHLY 30-40KT WITH EMBEDDED...MATURING MVC NEAR MHK. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE MO VALLEY. IT APPEARS MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF KS INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO BY MID DAY WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EXTREME
ERN OK INTO SRN MO. RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
CLOUD DEBRIS/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN
SO...SBCAPES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MARGINALLY-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES.
FARTHER WEST...IT APPEARS STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO...SWD INTO WEST TX
WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC
VALUES...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM. ELY COMPONENT ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS. WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
50S...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH 20-25KT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND ROUGHLY 30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERING OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY
EARLY EVENING ONE OR MORE SEWD-MOVING MCS/S COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS/NWRN TX. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
PERSISTS ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN MARGINAL
SHEAR...MODERATE RISK IS NOT WARRANTED.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS UPPER
SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
WA/ORE WHILE INTERIOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS RAPIDLY IN THE ABSENCE
OF CLOUDINESS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODIFIED INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR STRONG HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FAST-MOVING ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CORES CAN DEVELOP...ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
..DARROW.. 05/24/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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