STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N PAH 20 NW EVV 15 E HUF IND 30 ENE LEX 25 WSW LOZ 40 SE BWG
35 W HOP 25 N PAH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ACY 30 NNE BWI
40 ESE PSB 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 35 SE AUG.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SRQ 15 N VRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW POF 20 ENE SLO
40 ENE BMI 45 NNE LAF 20 SSW FDY 10 WNW ZZV 10 NNE SHD 50 ENE DAN
15 WNW SOP 40 S SPA 25 WNW AHN 20 WSW RMG 25 S HSV 15 ENE TUP
30 NNE MEM 55 NW POF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RWL 10 SE CPR
45 ESE DGW 35 NNW AKO 25 SSW LHX 55 ENE LVS 40 WNW 4CR 40 NE SAD
PHX 55 SSE IGM 10 S SGU 20 NW BCE 25 E 4HV 15 NNE MTJ ASE 30 N RWL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 60 SE GDV
35 WSW 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 20 N WEY 30 SSE 27U 75 S S80 25 W S80
40 N FCA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW OWY
30 WSW TWF 35 S BYI 50 SW DPG 15 S ELY 20 SSW U31 30 WSW OWY.
...SRN IL/IND INTO KY/NRN TN...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IL WITH 60 KT SPEED MAX
EXTENDING FROM MN INTO MO WILL TRACK SEWD TO ERN KY/TN VALLEY BY
12Z THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...
REACHING CRW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN MS/CENTRAL AR. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-17C AT ILX 00Z SOUNDING/ WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SRN IND/WRN-
CENTRAL KY THIS EVENING AIDING IN SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING OVER THIS AREA. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 60 KT SPEED MAX COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...
THOUGH ISOLATED...UNTIL 03Z INTO POTENTIALLY WRN-NWRN KY.
AFTER 03Z...CONTINUED AIR MASS STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FROM SERN
WY TO ERN CO. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z...WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE.
...WRN-CENTRAL MT...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO
ALBERTA OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT
REACHES SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL MT. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
..PETERS.. 05/29/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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