STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW TRI 20 NE CSV 45 NNW HOP 20 SE BLV 20 NE UIN 35 SW LNR
15 ENE LSE 35 ESE CWA 40 ESE MTW 45 NNE GRR FNT 15 SSW DTW
10 WNW CLE 30 ESE CAK 35 E PKB 25 NNW TRI.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W HLN 10 NW LVM 50 WNW COD 55 WSW COD 35 SE JAC 25 W BPI
10 SE MLD 35 S BYI 40 SSW OWY 85 E 4LW 15 W BNO 40 N BNO 45 NE BKE
35 N S80 40 WSW MSO 20 W HLN.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE GCK 25 SSW GCK 40 NW EHA 35 SSE PUB 10 NW PUB 40 SW DEN
45 SW LAR 40 ENE RWL CPR 25 N DGW 45 ENE DGW 35 W IML 30 NE GCK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 30 W ELM BGM
40 W GFL 40 NW PBG ...CONT... 20 SE DOV 30 SE AGS 25 ESE ATL
35 S ANB 20 W TCL 60 ENE PBF 40 ENE SGF 30 NNW COU 25 ESE OTM
10 W MSP 30 SSW BJI 15 W INL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN
30 NNE IGM 25 WNW MLF 40 WSW DPG 60 WNW ELY 40 ESE LOL 60 NNE SVE
30 NE MHS 50 SE OTH 35 NE AST 35 ENE SEA 50 E 63S 40 SW CTB
75 NNE BIL 35 WSW RAP 15 SSE MHN 35 NE HLC 45 NE DDC 20 S GAG
25 SW AMA 15 E TCC 20 WNW SAF 35 N GNT 55 SSW GNT 30 W ALM
20 W FST 35 SE P07.
....SYNOPSIS...
WARM RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. BEING FLATTENED SOME BY A RATHER VIGOROUS
S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO SRN ID. DOWNSTREAM A STRONG
S/WV TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN
OH VALLEY BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE
LOW NOW NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THRU NEB THEN WWD TO
ERN WY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SEWD THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
ONGOING ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SWRN ID AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH REFLECTS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
INTO SWRN ID...EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EWD ACROSS SRN ID INTO SWRN MT/WRN WY. WITH
MUCAPES CLIMBING TO 1500 J/KG AND 50 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
VICINITY SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
THE STRONG DIGGING TROUGH NRN MN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE VIGOROUS
UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD FROM NRN MN INTO WI. INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE INITIALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY.
12Z ETA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO SWRN MI AND NRN IN. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 80-90 KT NWLY WIND MAX DROPS SEWD
ACROSS IA INTO WRN OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER
DARK EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER SUPPORT AND
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES SWD THRU NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SYSTEM. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN
WY/NERN CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 50S PUSHING WWD
TO E SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
STRONG HEATING WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN
ERN WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE CAPES TO 1500
J/KG...AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP E/SEWD INTO
HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT MCS INTO WRN KS WITH
SEVERE THREAT DECREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER SS.
...SERN AZ...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH TERRAIN
SCENTRAL/SERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1500
J/KG. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED STORMS...GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY INTO ADJACENT DESERTS VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/30/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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