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May-30-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 NNW TRI 20 NE CSV 45 NNW HOP 20 SE BLV 20 NE UIN 35 SW LNR
   15 ENE LSE 35 ESE CWA 40 ESE MTW 45 NNE GRR FNT 15 SSW DTW
   10 WNW CLE 30 ESE CAK 35 E PKB 25 NNW TRI.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 W HLN 10 NW LVM 50 WNW COD 55 WSW COD 35 SE JAC 25 W BPI
   10 SE MLD 35 S BYI 40 SSW OWY 85 E 4LW 15 W BNO 40 N BNO 45 NE BKE
   35 N S80 40 WSW MSO 20 W HLN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 NE GCK 25 SSW GCK 40 NW EHA 35 SSE PUB 10 NW PUB 40 SW DEN
   45 SW LAR 40 ENE RWL CPR 25 N DGW 45 ENE DGW 35 W IML 30 NE GCK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 30 W ELM BGM
   40 W GFL 40 NW PBG ...CONT... 20 SE DOV 30 SE AGS 25 ESE ATL
   35 S ANB 20 W TCL 60 ENE PBF 40 ENE SGF 30 NNW COU 25 ESE OTM
   10 W MSP 30 SSW BJI 15 W INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN
   30 NNE IGM 25 WNW MLF 40 WSW DPG 60 WNW ELY 40 ESE LOL 60 NNE SVE
   30 NE MHS 50 SE OTH 35 NE AST 35 ENE SEA 50 E 63S 40 SW CTB
   75 NNE BIL 35 WSW RAP 15 SSE MHN 35 NE HLC 45 NE DDC 20 S GAG
   25 SW AMA 15 E TCC 20 WNW SAF 35 N GNT 55 SSW GNT 30 W ALM
   20 W FST 35 SE P07.
   
   
   
   ....SYNOPSIS...
   
   WARM RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. BEING FLATTENED SOME BY A RATHER VIGOROUS
   S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO SRN ID.  DOWNSTREAM A STRONG
   S/WV TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN
   OH VALLEY BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE
   LOW NOW NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD  THRU NEB THEN WWD TO
   ERN WY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SEWD THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   
   ONGOING ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SWRN ID AHEAD OF THE
   VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH REFLECTS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
   INTO SWRN ID...EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
   WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EWD ACROSS SRN ID INTO SWRN MT/WRN WY.  WITH
   MUCAPES CLIMBING TO 1500 J/KG AND 50 KT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...SUPERCELLS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
   VICINITY SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
   
   THE STRONG DIGGING TROUGH NRN MN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE VIGOROUS
   UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
   CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD FROM NRN MN INTO WI.  INSTABILITY AND
   MOISTURE INITIALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER BY
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY.
   
   12Z ETA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL AS
   COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO SWRN MI AND NRN IN. GIVEN THE
   STRONG  DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 80-90 KT NWLY WIND MAX DROPS SEWD
   ACROSS IA INTO WRN OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER
   DARK EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER SUPPORT AND
   CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW.  
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES SWD THRU NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY SYSTEM.  RESULT WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN
   WY/NERN CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 50S PUSHING WWD
   TO E SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
   
   STRONG HEATING WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN
   ERN WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH SURFACE CAPES TO 1500
   J/KG...AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. 
   PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP E/SEWD INTO
   HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT MCS INTO WRN KS WITH
   SEVERE THREAT DECREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER SS.
   
   ...SERN AZ...
   
   SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH TERRAIN 
   SCENTRAL/SERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1500
   J/KG.  WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED STORMS...GUSTY
   WINDS ARE LIKELY INTO ADJACENT DESERTS VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
    
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/30/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
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