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Jun- 5-2003 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 ENE CRP 20 SE COT 50 SE DRT ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 30 NE MRF
   50 ESE ALM 25 S 4CR 50 ESE ABQ 30 NW LVS 20 WSW RTN 25 E RTN
   15 E CAO 35 NNW AMA 75 ESE LBB ABI 25 SSE SEP 50 E ACT 25 S LFK
   20 SSW LCH.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 NNE PNC 35 SSW ICT 35 NNE P28 40 WNW HUT 20 ENE RSL 30 ENE OFK
   35 NNE SUX 15 SW SPW 25 N FOD 35 E FOD 40 NE DSM 40 WSW OTM
   25 E CNU 25 S CNU 20 NNW BVO 25 NNE PNC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 N CMX 45 ESE RHI
   35 WNW MKE 10 WSW SPI 30 WNW ARG 50 NE LIT 20 E PBF 15 WSW GLH
   30 SE GLH 35 S CBM 30 S BHM 35 NW AGS 20 ESE FLO 35 ESE ECG
   ...CONT... 40 SE DMN 20 N DMN 40 WNW SVC 40 NW PHX 30 NW BLH
   10 N EDW 25 ENE BFL 50 SE FAT 20 NE FAT 50 NNE MER 35 SSW TVL
   15 SSE TVL 50 SE TVL 65 ESE BIH 30 S LAS FLG 45 WSW GNT 15 NE GNT
   15 WSW 4SL 30 N DRO 35 E VEL 15 SW LND 35 W COD 30 ENE BTM
   45 NNW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 HUL
   ...CONT... 10 SW ISP 30 E BGM 15 NE ROC.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAK CLOSED OFF UPPER-LOW WILL ROTATE SLOWLY EWD TODAY INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SWD OUT OF SRN
   CANADA INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE LOWER-LEVELS...A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN US.
   
   ...ERN NM/W-CNTRL-SERN TX...
   LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX TO
   THE GULF COAST PROVIDING A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS
   MORNING. AS TEMPS HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO THE
   W...REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MTNS OF NM
   AND FAR W TX. MODELS VARY WIDELY CONCERNING INSTABILITY WITH THE
   BEST AGREEMENT ACROSS SERN NM/FAR W-CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG BY
   AFTERNOON. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE
   PRESENT ACROSS ERN NM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 40
   KT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AS THE CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO AN MCS THIS
   EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK
   ACROSS CNTRL TX AND POSSIBLY SE TX.
   
   ...ERN KS/ERN NE/WRN IA...
   UPPER-LOW AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY ROTATE SEWD
   THROUGH SD TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING SUFFICIENT FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
   QUESTION IS INSTABILITY WITH THE MODELS VARYING ON THE AMOUNT AND
   LOCATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 50S F EXISTS ACROSS ERN KS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
   TRANSPORT THIS AIR NWD. BEST APPROXIMATION WOULD PUT THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN KS/ERN NEB/WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE REGION WILL BE FROM 30 TO 40 KT AND A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM
   AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16 C...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION AND MOVE
   EWD INTO ERN IA/MO OVERNIGHT.
    
   ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 06/05/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
        
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