STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 NNE APN 25 SSW HTL 35 SSW HUF MDH 15 WSW PGO 25 NNE FTW
60 SSE CDS 15 W CDS 50 E AMA 25 NE ICT 10 W TOP 25 W DSM 30 NE FOD
20 NW MKT 35 SW DLH 80 NW CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP
30 WNW VCT 40 SE ACT 35 SSE DAL 35 S SJT 10 NW DRT ...CONT...
80 SSW GDP 40 SSW ROW 45 N TCC 20 N VEL 30 SE MQM 60 NW FCA
...CONT... 45 NW HVR 40 NE 4BQ 10 N BFF 30 NE LIC 35 SSW LAA
25 SSW DDC 25 NNE LNK 70 N ATY 80 NNW GFK ...CONT... 70 SSE OSC
40 SE BMG 25 SW UOX 25 NNW MCB 15 SW GPT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JFK
35 WSW MSS.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES / MS VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 60 KT SWLY MID-
LEVEL JET.
COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ATTM FROM NERN MN SWD INTO FAR NWRN MO AND
THEN SWWD INTO WRN OK AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE
EWD / SEWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM UPPER MI ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO OK...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ATTM FROM SRN WI SWWD INTO ERN KS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AHEAD OF ONGOING
CONVECTION AND SWD INTO OK / W TX...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST /
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
INDICATED.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...MODERATE / RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD OVER THE
WARM SECTOR ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS / LINES WITH SMALL-SCALE
BOWS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FROM ERN KS NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
FURTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD IS WEAKER / MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION.
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF OK / N TX IN WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF SWD-MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
..GOSS.. 06/25/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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