STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE OJC 35 ESE IRK 30 ESE DBQ 30 E RHI 20 NNW MQT 30 NE MQT
55 E MQT 35 NNW TVC 30 S MKG 10 ENE LAF 35 N EVV 20 ESE CGI
50 N HOT 10 SSE DUA 45 W MWL 50 NE BGS 50 S LBB 50 WSW LBB
40 E CVS 25 S AMA 30 S GAG 40 NNW BVO 10 SE OJC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ
40 WSW TOL 30 ESE IND 20 E EVV 30 NE DYR 30 WSW MEM 25 N GLH
45 WNW JAN 35 WNW GPT 35 S GPT ...CONT... 10 SE PSX 55 N VCT
15 WNW CLL 25 ENE TPL 35 S BWD 20 S SJT 70 ENE P07 45 NW DRT
...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 WNW GDP 15 SSE ROW 45 WSW TCC 45 S RTN
40 W TAD 30 W COS 15 WSW DEN 35 E DEN 15 NE LHX 30 NW EHA
25 ESE EHA 50 E LBL 15 NW EMP 10 SW LWD 10 N DSM 25 SE MKT
15 NNW BRD 15 W INL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W 4BQ 50 NNE LAR
15 SW RWL 10 NNE RKS 40 SW BZN 20 ESE 3DU 10 W CTB 50 WNW HVR
50 NE LWT 30 W 4BQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE FMY
10 ESE MIA.
...MIDWEST...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE PREFRONTAL COLD
POOL ACROSS ERN IA/WRN IL AND NERN MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
VIGOROUS CONVECTION WHILE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
LINE WAS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F AND 00 UTC
ILX RAOB SHOWING ABOUT 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE. WHILE STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO LAG TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND COLD POOL...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40KT ORIENTED
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR THE LOW LEVEL LINEAR FORCING...COUPLED WITH
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
...SRN PLAINS...
EVEN GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM SOUTH-CNTRL MO
SWWD ACROSS OK...NW AND WEST TX. EVENING RAOBS FROM SGF AND OUN
BOTH DEPICT ABUNDANT UNCAPPED INSTABILITY...2500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE...AND VERY MOIST PROFILES WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.
AREAS OF INTENSE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ALONG A TX PNHDL-NWRN OK-SERN KS LINE
CONTINUES TO SAG SEWD INTO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30KT WOULD SUGGEST PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. AS UPDRAFTS CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
GENERALLY WEST-EAST AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WEAK ELY CELL
MOTION SUGGESTS A LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IN ADDITION TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..CARBIN.. 06/26/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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