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Jun-26-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 SE OJC 35 ESE IRK 30 ESE DBQ 30 E RHI 20 NNW MQT 30 NE MQT
   55 E MQT 35 NNW TVC 30 S MKG 10 ENE LAF 35 N EVV 20 ESE CGI
   50 N HOT 10 SSE DUA 45 W MWL 50 NE BGS 50 S LBB 50 WSW LBB
   40 E CVS 25 S AMA 30 S GAG 40 NNW BVO 10 SE OJC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ
   40 WSW TOL 30 ESE IND 20 E EVV 30 NE DYR 30 WSW MEM 25 N GLH
   45 WNW JAN 35 WNW GPT 35 S GPT ...CONT... 10 SE PSX 55 N VCT
   15 WNW CLL 25 ENE TPL 35 S BWD 20 S SJT 70 ENE P07 45 NW DRT
   ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 WNW GDP 15 SSE ROW 45 WSW TCC 45 S RTN
   40 W TAD 30 W COS 15 WSW DEN 35 E DEN 15 NE LHX 30 NW EHA
   25 ESE EHA 50 E LBL 15 NW EMP 10 SW LWD 10 N DSM 25 SE MKT
   15 NNW BRD 15 W INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W 4BQ 50 NNE LAR
   15 SW RWL 10 NNE RKS 40 SW BZN 20 ESE 3DU 10 W CTB 50 WNW HVR
   50 NE LWT 30 W 4BQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE FMY
   10 ESE MIA.
   
   
   ...MIDWEST...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE PREFRONTAL COLD
   POOL ACROSS ERN IA/WRN IL AND NERN MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION WHILE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
   LINE WAS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F AND 00 UTC
   ILX RAOB SHOWING ABOUT 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE. WHILE STRONGER
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO LAG TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
   AND COLD POOL...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40KT ORIENTED
   NEARLY PERPENDICULAR THE LOW LEVEL LINEAR FORCING...COUPLED WITH
   MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
   MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   EVEN GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM SOUTH-CNTRL MO
   SWWD ACROSS OK...NW AND WEST TX. EVENING RAOBS FROM SGF AND OUN
   BOTH DEPICT ABUNDANT UNCAPPED INSTABILITY...2500-3000 J/KG
   MLCAPE...AND VERY MOIST PROFILES WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.
   AREAS OF INTENSE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ALONG A TX PNHDL-NWRN OK-SERN KS LINE
   CONTINUES TO SAG SEWD INTO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30KT WOULD SUGGEST PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
   MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. AS UPDRAFTS CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
   GENERALLY WEST-EAST AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WEAK ELY CELL
   MOTION SUGGESTS A LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IN ADDITION TO
   OCCASIONAL STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
    
   ..CARBIN.. 06/26/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
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