Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Jul-13-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphics (more info)
Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
0100 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   0100 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   0100 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
(Select thumbnails to view full images)
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 N RDU FAY 30 W CRE 35 SW AHN 25 SSE MSL 15 NNE PBF 40 NW TXK
   30 E FSI 35 NW CSM 15 N PVW 40 SE 4CR 35 ENE ONM 25 ESE SAF RTN
   25 W COS 10 NNE CYS 60 ENE DGW 40 NNE CDR 35 WNW BBW 25 ENE MCK
   35 NW HUT 30 W CNU 15 ENE SGF 20 NE DYR 45 WNW LOZ 35 SSE PKB
   10 WSW NEL 30 SSW ACY 15 SE RIC 35 N RDU.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD 25 NNW HDO
   45 E ACT 40 W TYR 15 WNW MWL 45 SW LBB 40 E ROW 35 W ELP
   ...CONT... 70 S GBN 50 NNW GBN 15 ESE IGM 65 NNE IGM 15 E GCN
   35 NNE SOW 30 NNW GNT 55 E GUC 10 W LAR 15 S DGW 40 S GCC
   55 ESE LWT 25 WSW OLF 45 ESE BIS 40 SSW ABR 55 E ANW 45 SW EAR
   35 ESE RSL 45 NNE JLN 55 SSW STL 20 NE PAH SDF 40 E LUK 40 NNW DAY
   30 W RFD 10 SW MSP 35 N BRD 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NE PLN
   15 SSE TVC 20 NNW LAN 40 NNW MFD 35 WNW HLG 30 SSE DUJ 15 SW AVP
   25 WSW BDR.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE A TROUGH
   REMAINS OVER THE EAST.  IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SEVERAL
   WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN NW
   FLOW.  ADDITIONALLY...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
   ENEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD AND EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NEB
   PANHANDLE SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM.  SEVERAL OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS
   SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL
   JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
   OVER N CENTRAL AND NERN OK THIS EVENING AS WEAK UPPER FEATURE OVER
   CENTRAL KS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD TOWARD MODERATE TO EXTREME
   INSTABILITY AND SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   WITH NWLY / NNWLY 25 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
   ABOVE INCREASING SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
   IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS / ORGANIZED STORMS CLUSTERS.  LARGE
   HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF
   A STORM CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL. 
   NLY FLOW COMPONENT ALOFT ABOVE SLY LOW JET WOULD SUPPORT A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   FURTHER ENHANCED BY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL DRY
   AIR EVIDENT IN AREA RAOBS.
   
   ...MID MS / TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM
   AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND
   FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   FURTHER WEST ACROSS TN...CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ARE OCCURRING ATTM INVOF SURFACE FRONT / AHEAD OF WEAK
   UPPER FEATURES MOVING CYCLONICALLY SEWD INTO THE AREA.  MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. 
   
   ...THE SOUTHWEST...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SWWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ
   TOWARD THE TUS AREA ATTM.  INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID 50S TO ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG
   WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/13/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home