STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 N RDU FAY 30 W CRE 35 SW AHN 25 SSE MSL 15 NNE PBF 40 NW TXK
30 E FSI 35 NW CSM 15 N PVW 40 SE 4CR 35 ENE ONM 25 ESE SAF RTN
25 W COS 10 NNE CYS 60 ENE DGW 40 NNE CDR 35 WNW BBW 25 ENE MCK
35 NW HUT 30 W CNU 15 ENE SGF 20 NE DYR 45 WNW LOZ 35 SSE PKB
10 WSW NEL 30 SSW ACY 15 SE RIC 35 N RDU.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD 25 NNW HDO
45 E ACT 40 W TYR 15 WNW MWL 45 SW LBB 40 E ROW 35 W ELP
...CONT... 70 S GBN 50 NNW GBN 15 ESE IGM 65 NNE IGM 15 E GCN
35 NNE SOW 30 NNW GNT 55 E GUC 10 W LAR 15 S DGW 40 S GCC
55 ESE LWT 25 WSW OLF 45 ESE BIS 40 SSW ABR 55 E ANW 45 SW EAR
35 ESE RSL 45 NNE JLN 55 SSW STL 20 NE PAH SDF 40 E LUK 40 NNW DAY
30 W RFD 10 SW MSP 35 N BRD 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NE PLN
15 SSE TVC 20 NNW LAN 40 NNW MFD 35 WNW HLG 30 SSE DUJ 15 SW AVP
25 WSW BDR.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE A TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN NW
FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
ENEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD AND EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM. SEVERAL OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS
SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
OVER N CENTRAL AND NERN OK THIS EVENING AS WEAK UPPER FEATURE OVER
CENTRAL KS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD TOWARD MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS AREA.
WITH NWLY / NNWLY 25 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ABOVE INCREASING SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS / ORGANIZED STORMS CLUSTERS. LARGE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF
A STORM CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL.
NLY FLOW COMPONENT ALOFT ABOVE SLY LOW JET WOULD SUPPORT A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR EVIDENT IN AREA RAOBS.
...MID MS / TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS TN...CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE OCCURRING ATTM INVOF SURFACE FRONT / AHEAD OF WEAK
UPPER FEATURES MOVING CYCLONICALLY SEWD INTO THE AREA. MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA.
...THE SOUTHWEST...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SWWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ
TOWARD THE TUS AREA ATTM. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL.
..GOSS.. 07/13/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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