STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   65 E MQT 10 SE MTW MKE 15 NE RFD DBQ MCW SPW VTN 45 WSW MHN IML
   GLD LAA PUB 35 SW DEN LAR CPR COD 15 ESE LVM 3HT 40 NW GDV
   60 NNE ISN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK
   TYR MLC BVO 10 S CNU SGF 20 WSW LIT 10 SSE ELD 15 SSE MLU
   35 WNW JAN 15 SE CBM 10 SE BHM 25 WSW AUO 15 S TOI 10 SW PNS
   15 SSW GPT 10 WSW LFT LFK.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 SW HSE FAY SOP GSO DAN 25 SSW WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DRT 20 NE SAT
   20 ENE ACT DUA 10 ENE OKC 10 NE GAG 20 ENE CAO 40 E LVS 10 ESE 4CR
   45 SE ELP ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNE GBN 30 NNE BLH 15 E TRM
   15 S RAL 30 ENE SBA 40 SW FAT 35 E SAC 45 SSW SVE 50 S BNO
   25 W S80 30 NW HLN 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... OSC 20 NNE LAN 35 W SBN
   30 NNW MLI 45 ENE SUX 30 NE OLU 20 WSW LNK 25 S FNB 25 N SZL
   15 WNW SLO 45 ENE LUK 15 SE MRB 10 E NEL.
   
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER
   RIDGE OVER THE WRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL U S...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE ERN STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
   SEWD REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
   WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WLY/NWLY FLOW FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ARE SUGGESTED IN THE IMAGERY...
   PRIMARY UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD
   INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MOVES
   SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  IN THE WEST...VORTICITY MAX OVER
   SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNWWD INTO CENTRAL CA REGION.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT FROM COASTAL DELAWARE INTO NWRN NC
   AND TN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...CONTINUING WWD AS A
   STATIONARY FRONT INTO SRN KS.  A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   EXTREME NWRN MN SWWD INTO SRN ND THEN WWD INTO MT WILL MOVE SEWD
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING AN UPPER MI/NWRN WI/SRN MN/WRN SD
   LINE BY 20/12Z.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS WRN IA INTO MN
   WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS NOW INTO THIS REGION.  STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PLAINS COUPLED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF
   2500-3000 J/KG FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INHIBITED BY A
   CAP INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
   ACROSS PARTS OF MN WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE
   700 MB LEVEL.  MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN SD INTO MN WITHIN LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FRONT.  STRENGTHENING NWLY MID
   LEVEL WINDS OF 45-55 KT WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
   40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
   A FEW SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM MN INTO WI.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION
   INTO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TONIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
   THESE REGIONS.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER
   HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO
   LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STRONGER WLY/WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
   VERTICAL SHEAR OVER MT INTO ND AND NRN SD SUGGEST THAT MORE
   ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  FARTHER SOUTH FROM WY INTO WRN
   NEB/ERN CO WINDS WILL BE WEAKER BUT PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   WITH HEIGHT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. 
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...ERN PARTS OF SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...
   WEAKENING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD ACROSS AR INTO LA AND WRN MS. 
   THIS SYSTEM HAS MODIFIED AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE...HOWEVER IT HAS
   GENERATED A BOUNDARY FROM NRN LA ACROSS NERN TX AND ERN OK INTO
   SERN KS.  ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM EXTREME SERN
   KS INTO ERN OK ALONG ERN EDGE OF STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WHERE
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED TO BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION. 
   THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/EAST OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
   LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
   SWD THROUGH MS AND LA THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AND HIGH DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN EWD INTO AL...CLUSTER OF
   STRONG STORMS ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION.
   
   ...SERN VA/NC...
   CLOUDS OVER THIS AREA HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR TODAY BUT
   THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.  AS THE SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THIS REGION FROM THE NW...COOLING ALOFT AND
   INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ...ERN AL/GA/SC/FL...
   STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ ARE RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS WITH SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY WEAK
   INDICATING THREAT FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NV AREA...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   OVER PARTS OF ERN CA INTO NV AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX LIFTING
   NNWWD ACROSS SRN CA.  12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT INVERTED-V CHARACTER
   SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE
   THUNDERSTORMS.      
   
   ..WEISS/BRIGHT.. 07/19/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z