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Jul-26-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   50 NNE CMX 50 NNE IWD 20 NNW DLH 20 ESE BJI 30 SE GFK DVL
   55 NNE MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE OSC 15 E MSN
   35 SSE SUX 10 S MCK 50 SSE LHX 50 NNE ROW 45 SSW MRF ...CONT...
   10 SSW IPL 30 WNW TRM 35 ENE FAT 20 SW RBL 25 E ACV 40 NE 4BK
   45 ESE EUG 55 W PDT 15 ENE PUW 10 NE MSO 50 ESE LWT 15 S GDV
   25 S ISN 60 NNW ISN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSX 50 SE AUS
   20 E TPL 30 WSW TYR 35 NNE SHV 55 SE GWO 35 E 0A8 30 NNW LGC
   40 NNW AHN 30 ESE SPA 25 S SOP 10 ENE GSB 20 SE ORF.
   
   
   ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   
   UPPER SPEED MAX OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN
   ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD
   ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO NRN MT.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION IS EXTREMELY
   CAPPED BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL
   CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN WLY WARM ADVECTION
   FEED FROM ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO WI.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   HIGHLY ELEVATED THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
   INCREASE AS VEERED LLJ PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
   HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION.
   
   OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF ND/MN
   LATER TONIGHT.  FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
   RAPID SWD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO EXISTING INHIBITION AND THE EXIT
   REGION OF UPPER JET REMAINING OVER CANADA.  HOWEVER...ELY LOW LEVEL
   COMPONENT ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS
   SUGGEST LONE SUPERCELL OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PERSIST FOR SOME
   TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CANADA OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH ANY
   STORMS THAT DROP SOUTH OF THE BORDER TONIGHT.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   
   TOPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE GA/SC COAST...ROUGHLY 60E SSI...IS
   LIFTING NWD TOWARD THE COAST WITH SEVERAL STRONG CYCLONIC
   CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING INLAND.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THIS
   FEATURE SHOULD NOT INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO THREAT AND PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW THE REST OF
   TONIGHT. 
   
   ..DARROW.. 07/26/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
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