STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 NNE CMX 50 NNE IWD 20 NNW DLH 20 ESE BJI 30 SE GFK DVL
55 NNE MOT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE OSC 15 E MSN
35 SSE SUX 10 S MCK 50 SSE LHX 50 NNE ROW 45 SSW MRF ...CONT...
10 SSW IPL 30 WNW TRM 35 ENE FAT 20 SW RBL 25 E ACV 40 NE 4BK
45 ESE EUG 55 W PDT 15 ENE PUW 10 NE MSO 50 ESE LWT 15 S GDV
25 S ISN 60 NNW ISN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSX 50 SE AUS
20 E TPL 30 WSW TYR 35 NNE SHV 55 SE GWO 35 E 0A8 30 NNW LGC
40 NNW AHN 30 ESE SPA 25 S SOP 10 ENE GSB 20 SE ORF.
...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
UPPER SPEED MAX OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN
ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO NRN MT. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION IS EXTREMELY
CAPPED BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL
CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN WLY WARM ADVECTION
FEED FROM ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
HIGHLY ELEVATED THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
INCREASE AS VEERED LLJ PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION.
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF ND/MN
LATER TONIGHT. FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID SWD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO EXISTING INHIBITION AND THE EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET REMAINING OVER CANADA. HOWEVER...ELY LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS
SUGGEST LONE SUPERCELL OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CANADA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DROP SOUTH OF THE BORDER TONIGHT.
...CAROLINAS...
TOPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE GA/SC COAST...ROUGHLY 60E SSI...IS
LIFTING NWD TOWARD THE COAST WITH SEVERAL STRONG CYCLONIC
CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING INLAND. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD NOT INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT AND PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW THE REST OF
TONIGHT.
..DARROW.. 07/26/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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