SPC AC 120047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
VCT 25 SE HDO 20 SSE JCT 25 SE SPS 35 W ADM 50 WNW MLC 25 ENE MLC 35
SSE PGO 40 W TXK 30 NW GGG 50 W LFK 60 W HOU 45 WNW VCT
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW TUS 65 WNW SAD
60 SW SOW PRC 20 SSW SLC 20 SW OGD 35 NE ELY 65 ESE U31 15 SSE BAM
30 WNW OWY 30 NW TWF 25 NNE MLD 35 S WEY 20 N DLN 60 SSW CTB 30 NNE
CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 20 ENE REJ 10 NNE LIC 25 SW TCC 40 S 4CR
30 E DMN 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 15 WNW DRT 25 ENE CNK 30 SE ALO 40 NW
MKG 110 NE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE PBG 30 ENE MPV 40 NNW EPM
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK AND CNTRL/NERN
TX...
...CNTRL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK...
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING QUICKLY INTO
ERN OK ATTM AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN/ERN TX OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS ERN OK AND CNTRL/NERN TX AND
GIVEN LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF UPPER
JET...THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 00 UTC
FWD SOUNDING ASCENDED JUST BEFORE CONVECTION MOVED IN AND SHOWED A
MLCAPE OF 1100 J/KG AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANY TSTM THAT
CAN FORM OVERNIGHT MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...THUS MAINTENANCE OF SLGT RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
...CNTRL/ERN MT...
HIGH BASED...LARGELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SWRN MT
MTNS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE MIGRATING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT.
EVENING GGW SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND CAPPED TO A SURFACE BASED
PARCEL. WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT OVER
NERN MT...BUT MORE LIKELY OVER SRN SASK...AND THIS MAY SUPPORT A
SMALL MCS THAT RIDES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN MT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW TSTMS MANAGED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF CO ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. 00 UTC DNR BALLOON DATA SHOWS MLCAPE OF
600 J/KG AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
STRUCTURE BENEATH CLOUD BASE MAY AID IN A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES.
..RACY.. 08/12/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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