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Aug-12-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   SPC AC 120047
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003
   
   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
   VCT 25 SE HDO 20 SSE JCT 25 SE SPS 35 W ADM 50 WNW MLC 25 ENE MLC 35
   SSE PGO 40 W TXK 30 NW GGG 50 W LFK 60 W HOU 45 WNW VCT
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW TUS 65 WNW SAD
   60 SW SOW PRC 20 SSW SLC 20 SW OGD 35 NE ELY 65 ESE U31 15 SSE BAM
   30 WNW OWY 30 NW TWF 25 NNE MLD 35 S WEY 20 N DLN 60 SSW CTB 30 NNE
   CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 20 ENE REJ 10 NNE LIC 25 SW TCC 40 S 4CR
   30 E DMN 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 15 WNW DRT 25 ENE CNK 30 SE ALO 40 NW
   MKG 110 NE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE PBG 30 ENE MPV 40 NNW EPM
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK AND CNTRL/NERN
   TX...
   
   ...CNTRL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK...
   VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER MIDLEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING QUICKLY INTO
   ERN OK ATTM AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN/ERN TX OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE 
   A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS ERN OK AND CNTRL/NERN TX AND
   GIVEN LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF UPPER
   JET...THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.  00 UTC
   FWD SOUNDING ASCENDED JUST BEFORE CONVECTION MOVED IN AND SHOWED A
   MLCAPE OF 1100 J/KG AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ANY TSTM THAT
   CAN FORM OVERNIGHT MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...THUS MAINTENANCE OF SLGT RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN MT...
   HIGH BASED...LARGELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SWRN MT
   MTNS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE MIGRATING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT. 
   EVENING GGW SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND CAPPED TO A SURFACE BASED
   PARCEL.  WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT OVER
   NERN MT...BUT MORE LIKELY OVER SRN SASK...AND THIS MAY SUPPORT A
   SMALL MCS THAT RIDES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  ISOLD
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN MT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   A FEW TSTMS MANAGED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF CO ROCKIES
   THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP MID
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.  00 UTC DNR BALLOON DATA SHOWS MLCAPE OF
   600 J/KG AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   STRUCTURE BENEATH CLOUD BASE MAY AID IN A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO
   THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES.
   
   ..RACY.. 08/12/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
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