Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Aug-29-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphics (more info)
Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
1630 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   1630 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   1630 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
(Select thumbnails to view full images)
   SPC AC 291614
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2003
   
   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
   EFK 20 NE MSV CXY 25 SSW LBE 25 NE CMH 40 E TOL
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CRP 15 NE ALI
   40 SE COT 15 N LRD
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 35 NNE DRA
   35 NNE U31 50 SW BOI 60 NW 27U 40 WNW 3HT 50 ESE LWT 45 W JMS 55 S
   FAR 25 ENE ATY 45 SSE 9V9 20 S BBW 40 S EAR 30 N STJ 15 NNW MLI 55
   SE OSC
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN GREAT LAKES / NEW YORK
   AND PENNSYLVANIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AS A VIGOROUS
   MID/UPPER JET MOVES FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES EWD JUST TO THE N OF THE
   ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. COLD FRONT FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
   EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SRN LWR MI THEN WSWWD TO ALONG MO/IA BORDER  TO
   SERN CO. WARM FRONT SWD THRU CENTRAL NY/PA SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  WARM MOIST AIR MASS IN WARM SECTOR IS
   SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NY/PA.
   
   ...EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NY/PA...
   PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN/NRN NY AS
   THE CAP HAD VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARED BY 16Z WITH SURFACE TEMPS TO NEAR
   80F AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/K MOVING EWD
   ACROSS WRN NY/PA COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER...SFC TO 6KM OF 35-40 KT
   SUPPORTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NY INITIALLY AND
   THEN SHIFTING INTO PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY SEVERE MODE
   WILL BE DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORT LINES/BOW THAT CAN
   DEVELOP.
   
   SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING E OF HUDSON VALLEY
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AREA.
   
   ...OH VALLEY WSWWD TO LWR MO VALLEY...
   PREVAILING FLOW WEAKENS IN THIS AREA AND WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY
   6C/KM OR LESS...STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...
   POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ERN CO/SERN WY.
   ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SBCAPE UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG WILL
   TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE
   
   ..HALES.. 08/29/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home