Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Aug-30-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphics (more info)
Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
0100 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   0100 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   0100 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
(Select thumbnails to view full images)
   SPC AC 300101
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2003
   
   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 10 SE IGM
   35 NW P38 25 ENE U31 30 N WMC 70 SE BNO 60 NNW BOI 20 SW DLN 40 ENE
   WEY 20 NE 81V 30 N CDR 15 WSW BBW 30 SSW OMA 30 S BRL 45 NW LAF 30 W
   CLE ...CONT... 20 S WAL 50 WNW ECG 40 E CLT 25 ESE AND 45 E MCN GNV
   35 W AGR 25 NNE FMY 15 NNE MIA ...CONT... 50 SSW PSX 20 W VCT 30 SSE
   AUS 10 WNW ACT 35 E BWD 25 ESE JCT DRT
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN NY/ERN PA/NRN DEL/MD...
   STRONG DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS FROM NERN PA ACROSS NRN NJ AND SERN NY LATE THIS EVENING.
   THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS ALONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL
   LINE WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE REST OF NJ INTO DEL AND MD ERN
   SHORE... A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS BEING FUELED BY A POCKET
   OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION...WHILE MORE
   ISOLD ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING OVER ERN/SRN NJ ALONG SEA BREEZE
   CONVERGENCE AXIS. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A
   BRIEF/ISOLD DOWNBURST WIND HAZARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
   ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   PREFRONTAL AIRMASS FROM WRN PA WSWWD ACROSS SRN OH/SRN IND/NRN AND
   WRN KY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
   WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. SOME AREAS DID
   RECEIVE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON INCLUDING
   PARTS OF SRN IND/NRN KY...AND SRN OH. LONGER LIVED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...AND SOUTH OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
   INTO POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN SLOW MOVING BANDS
   OF STRONG STORMS. WHILE AN ISOLD STRONG DOWNBURST WIND IS POSSIBLE
   FROM SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS...GREATER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
   FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CONVECTION.
   
   ...ERN NM...WRN AND NWRN TX...
   WIDESPREAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WITHIN
   WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
   EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING VERY WEAK FLOW AOB 10KT THROUGH 300MB
   ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING RANDOM AND SLOW CELL MOTIONS WITH SOME
   TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO COALESCE AND STRENGTHEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
   BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
   WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
   BACKGROUND ABSENT...LOCAL STORM SCALE TO MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
   COULD BRIEFLY AID UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND RESULT IN ONE OR TWO STRONG
   TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW.
   SEE MESOSCALE NUMBER 2317 FOR DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE HEAVY
   RAIN IN THIS AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/30/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home