SPC AC 100544
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2003
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
   BGS 30 NNE MAF 55 NNE HOB 45 ENE CVS 15 WSW GCK 25 NNE MCK 40 NE VTN
   50 E BIS 30 NNW JMS 30 S GFK 35 SW BJI 35 W BRD 30 SW SPW 30 E BIE
   35 S ICT 30 NE LTS 70 NW ABI 20 NE BGS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE YUM 50 ESE SGU
   OGD 10 SW JAC 35 NE JAC 30 NE COD 30 SE MLS 10 ENE GDV 65 NW ISN
   ...CONT... 50 W CMX 15 ENE RST 10 NNE LWD 50 WSW TUL 20 NW ADM 25
   SSE FTW 50 ENE ACT 30 ENE LFK 15 S LUL 25 WNW PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FMY 20 NNE
   PBI.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   KS...NEB...NW OK...W TX...SE ND...ERN SD...NW IA...WRN MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY.
   AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WILL
   MOVE NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO SRN MANITOBA THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER NRN KS AND NEB AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX 
   WHICH SHOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION THERE THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH
   ACROSS SRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   FEATURE WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC HEATING WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH-END
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MOST LIKELY DEVELOPING FROM THE NERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL KS. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND NEAR A
   SFC LOW IN KS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION BY LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH OTHER STORMS INITIATING NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW
   ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SHOW MODERATE
   TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION VARYING FROM 50 KT
   ACROSS NEB TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED
   WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A
   PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST FROM W TX NWD TO WRN NEB
   WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE
   SUPERCELLS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY IN THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
   LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM CNTRL KS TO SCNTRL
   NEB. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS
   AND BOWING ECHOES.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN
   SD AND SRN ND IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION OVER A WARM FRONT MOVING
   NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY
   CAUSE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
   WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   60S F AND SFC TEMPS IN THE 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES
   ABOVE 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH
   MARGINAL...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/10/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z