SPC AC 190553
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2003
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
   ACY 35 NW ILG 20 SE IPT 30 NE IPT BGM 40 ENE BGM 45 WSW ALB 30 SW
   ALB 25 NNE POU 15 W BDR 10 SSE ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW CAR 25 SSW BHB
   ...CONT... 35 NE SBY 35 SW DCA 25 E EKN 30 E PKB 25 E CMH 10 SSW TOL
   35 WSW MBS 45 NNE GRB 45 E BRD 10 W INL ...CONT... 20 ESE P07 45 WSW
   JCT 55 ENE JCT 30 W ACT 65 E ACT 40 W LFK 40 NNE HOU 45 SW GLS
   ...CONT... SRQ 30 SSE DAB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN PA...SERN
   NY...AND NJ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   REMAINS OF T.S. ISABEL WILL ACCELERATE NORTH FROM WRN PA INTO SRN
   ONTARIO BEFORE MERGING WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
   LIFTING ENEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SLY
   FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE EJECTING ISABEL WILL SPREAD NNEWD FROM
   NY...PA...AND NJ ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF
   ISABEL AND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE
   WILL STRETCH FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD TO SOUTH TX AS A LARGE COOL
   SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. THE NEXT
   UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING SRN BC... WILL MOVE OVER
   THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW AND TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM MT TO
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY...
   VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN ERN SEMICIRCLE OF ISABEL
   CIRCULATION WILL BRING TROPICAL AIRMASS NWD ACROSS PA/NJ AND INTO
   SERN NY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS.
   SYSTEM ALREADY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
   WITH PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING
   AROUND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. THIS MID/HIGH LEVEL DRYING
   IS FCST TO SPREAD ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH INCREASED BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND MEAN
   MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 250-800 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. BANDS OF ENHANCED
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
   PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY
   STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LCL/LFC SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND THE 
   POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/19/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z