SPC AC 201943
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2003
   
   VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
   CDS 30 SSE CVS 60 SW TCC 10 ENE LVS 35 N CAO DDC ICT 15 NW BVO 25
   WSW TUL 20 E CSM 40 W CDS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU SAD GNT 60
   NNW LVS LHX IML CDR GCC 10 NW SHR 10 E LWT 40 ENE CTB ...CONT... 20
   ESE INL 40 NNE BRD 10 SW MKT 20 NE FOD DSM HRO FSM 35 NNE ADM 30 WNW
   SPS INK 60 WNW MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DRT 10 NW SAT
   CLL 25 WSW POE 40 W HUM ...CONT... 20 SSW MOB 45 NNW PNS 25 SE JAX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PSM 55 W 3B1.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN NM/OK AND
   TX PANHANDLES EWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AT 19Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A SURFACE
   TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN CO/ERN NM. THE SURFACE
   TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD
   OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...
   HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER OH/IND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
   SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX.  A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE
   SURFACE DATA ABOUT 150 NM ESE BRO...ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM.
   
   ...NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/SRN KS/NRN OK AREA...
   ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING AND THE WEAK WAVE IN THE GULF ARE RESULTING
   IN NELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SRN TX...VAD WIND AND PROFILER PLOTS
   SHOW 25-35 KT SLY WINDS ARE RESULTING IN THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE
   700-850 MB LAYER ACROSS ERN NM TX/OK PANHANDLE AREAS. GIVEN 500-700
   MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING...A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN NM NEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN KS.
   MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
   SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEFLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
   
   STORMS...HOWEVER...ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
   TONIGHT ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALSO THE LIFT
   SHOULD BE ACCENTUATED BY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 LAYER...MUCAPE VALUES
   ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT HAIL. THE
   STORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK OVERNIGHT AS
   THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT/VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD.
   
   ..IMY.. 09/20/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z