SPC AC 280036
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2003
   
   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
   PBG 30 ESE UCA 30 NW ILG 45 E DAN 15 W DAN 30 WSW MRB 30 NW SYR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 NNE LRD
   15 ESE CRP ...CONT... 25 SW 7R4 45 SSW CBM 10 NNW HSV 30 NNW BNA 40
   NE UNO COU 40 NE UIN 20 ENE CGX 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 NW EFK JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CNM 50 W CVS 40
   NNW TCC 15 NW AMA 25 NE PVW 25 ENE BGS 40 S MAF 15 SSW INK 15 N CNM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
   U.S. INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE
   INTENSE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE
   UPPER OH VALLEY/NERN U.S. INTO ERN CANADA...DOWNSTREAM FROM
   MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...
   SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NY SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
   INTO NRN GA/AL. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD
   OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...NERN U.S...
   DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK COUPLED
   WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT ONGOING SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH 00Z
   SOUNDINGS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INDICATE ONLY WEAK
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/...OBSERVED WIND PROFILES WITHIN
   THIS AIRMASS STILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   ESTABLISHED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY MERIDIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
   BUOYANCY LAYER SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.
   WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE / EFFECTIVELY
   CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH / ALSO SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL/LEWP STRUCTURES.
   
   
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN TO GA/AL...WEAKER WIND FIELDS AND
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ONGOING STORMS SHOULD
   BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
   HOURS AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
   MOST INTENSE STORMS PRIOR TO THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE THREAT IS TOO
   LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/28/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z