SPC AC 021251
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2003
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CTY 25 NNW
   DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S AUG 30 WSW EEN
   35 SSW BGM 15 W FKL ARB 20 ESE HTL 75 NNE APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE YUM 15 NNE LAS
   55 SW U31 45 NW SVE 55 NNE LMT 60 ESE BNO 10 S IDA 40 SW RWL 50 SSE
   AKO 40 ENE HLC 30 WNW OMA 20 S RWF 25 SSW EAU 35 W RFD 20 SSW SGF 40
   N ADM 25 ENE LBB 30 SSE ROW 30 S DMN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION IS FORECAST TO ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...WHILE A
   SECOND TROUGH MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION LATER IN
   THE PERIOD.  RESULT WILL BE THE MAINTENANCE OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
   OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
   
   MEANWHILE...THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IN THE WEST -- CENTERED OVER
   BRITISH COLUMBIA / ALBERTA -- WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDERCUT BY AN
   UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
   THE SRN ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
   ALSO FORECAST IN LOW CAPE / LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL
   PENINSULA...WHILE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
   DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD
   INTO THE MID / UPPER MS VALLEY IN MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS
   NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.  IN
   ADDITION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED / EMBEDDED STORMS CAN
   ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
   DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
   
   ...SWRN CONUS...
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED /LESS THAN 500 J/KG
   MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION ASSUMING
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED /
   MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.  ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY DRY / MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
   
   HOWEVER...LACK OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED ATTM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK / DISORGANIZED...THUS PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A
   SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/02/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z