SPC AC 081254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2003
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PFN 25 E 0A8 35
   NW CHA 25 WNW SSU 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 SSE PBI 65 W MIA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SSW INW
   55 W GUP 30 SW EHA 20 N GLD 25 SW ANW 40 ENE PIR 70 NNE DVL
   ...CONT... 55 ENE CMX 30 S LSE 50 SSW IRK 25 SE SGF 45 N TXK 15 NNW
   TPL 40 N VCT 20 ESE PSX.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT MID-/UPPER-LEVEL JETS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
   FEATURES...SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY OVER CNTRL MT/WY/ WILL PHASE WITH SECONDARY DISTURBANCE OVER
   NRN NM AND THEN PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
   ELSEWHERE...WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NRN GA WILL LIFT
   NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT
   MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS ND...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER SRN MANITOBA
   TONIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER ERN ND SWWD INTO WRN NEB
   BY EARLY EVENING. FARTHER S...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
   IT/S INTERSECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PNHDL
   AT THIS TIME. OVER THE SERN U.S....A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
   OVER ERN SC AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN NC WITH WEAK TRAILING
   FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...SERN U.S....
   ALTHOUGH LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
   CLOUDINESS ACROSS ERN GA INTO SC...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY
   COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -13C AT 500MB WITH A WBZ
   HEIGHT OF 9600FT AT FFC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL GA PRODUCED 1
   INCH HAIL EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IF CLOUD BREAKS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD
   OF MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
   CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING AND
   AFTERNOON.
   
   FARTHER S ACROSS NERN FL...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
   WEAKER HOWEVER...STRONGER INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
   MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. 12Z TLH/JAX SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODESTLY
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /25-35KTS/ ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF VORT MAX AND
   IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
   SOME ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   SWLY 30-40KT LLJ AXIS FROM THE NRN TX PNHDL INTO SRN MN WILL REMAIN
   ESTABLISHED TODAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE NWD TRANSPORT OF
   INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
   LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
   ACROSS MUCH OF KS SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND THE TX PNHDL. FARTHER N
   FROM CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD...FEWER CLOUDS COUPLED WITH THE
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS SHOULD
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
   AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
   WINDS/SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY
   AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO ERN SD...CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM NOSE
   ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
   SURFACED-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND/OR
   FORCING IS STRONGER ALONG COLD FRONT...SMALL WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES
   MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 10/08/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z