SPC AC 170524
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2003
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW 7R4 JAN GWO
   MEM 45 ENE DYR 15 SW BNA LGC MCN AGS CLT WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 35 WSW ALI
   MFE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE...NOW BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...
   DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH/JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
   TROUGH...AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
   EAST SOUTHEASTWARD.  MODELS...HOWEVER...ALL SUGGEST SYSTEM WILL
   SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS
   LIKELY TO DIMINISH UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLY MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
   
   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/EASTERN GULF STATES...
   MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION IN 
   EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 17/12Z. 
   ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
   TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE REMAINING MOISTURE FROM
   INFLUX OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK
   CAPE FOR MOIST PARCELS BASED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER FORCING DURING
   THE MORNING HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN
   DRIER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA.
   
   ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTENING/WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE
   DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE
   EASTERN CAROLINAS.  AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THIS
   ENVIRONMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY APPEARS MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT
   AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFFSHORE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
   STREAM.
   
   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW/CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
   HEATING.  STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...BUT ACTIVITY
   APPEARS MORE LIKELY WELL TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/17/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z