SPC AC 171921
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2003
   
   VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FMY 40 NE FMY
   35 SW ORL 45 S GNV 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 NNW LFT 20 SE
   LUL 25 SSW SEM 35 WNW ATL 15 SSW SPA 30 ESE GSO 25 ESE ECG.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   STRONG VORT MAX -- NOW CENTERED OVER FAR NWRN GA ACCORDING TO LATEST
   WV IMAGERY -- CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS.  AIRMASS
    AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /LESS THAN
   500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ DESPITE ETA FORECASTS WHICH ARE MUCH MORE
   AGGRESSIVE WITH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY.
   
   A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PERSIST ACROSS W CENTRAL GA / E CENTRAL AL
   WITHIN CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST S OF MAIN VORT
   CENTER...HOWEVER CG LIGHTNING HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED WITH SHOWERS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE SERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS FROM NERN FL NWD
   INTO ERN SC -- FURTHER INDICATIVE OF LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   PRESENT.  
   
   ALTHOUGH OBSERVED SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WOULD SUPPORT
   SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
   CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEAK -- THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED / MARGINAL HAIL
   THREAT AT BEST APPEARS TO EXIST.  OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND UPPER FEATURE MOVES
   OFFSHORE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/17/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z