SPC AC 031250
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 AM CST MON NOV 03 2003
   
   VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W LIC 25 W RTN 45
   S FMN 30 WNW 4BL 30 S U24 35 NW DPG 45 E MLD 55 NE RKS 15 SSE LAR 25
   W LIC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 25 N AYS 45
   SW CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 35 ENE BMI
   20 N SZL 20 N PNC 50 S DDC 40 ESE GLD 50 N BUB 30 ENE RWF 30 NE AUW
   15 SE APN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL REMAIN
   DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER FEATURES THIS PERIOD. STRONG VORT MAX
   OVER CA NOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. MEANTIME...SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL
   EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SRN STREAM OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
   
   THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 
   
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION PERSISTS THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
   FROM ERN NEB THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SHIFT ENEWD TODAY AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES TOWARD THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY. AXIS OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS S OF FRONT
   ACROSS OK AND MUCH OF TX. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND GENERALLY WEAK
   LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CAPE TO AOB 800 J/KG. THIS EVENING THE LOW
   LEVEL JET WILL ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EJECTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AND
   ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG AND N OF FRONT
   IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
   NEWD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. 
   
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG KS PORTION
   OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER...BUT MOST
   OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF THE BOUNDARY. IF SURFACE
   BASED STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELLS
   STRUCTURES GIVEN THE STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
   THREAT FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG KS PORTION OF BOUNDARY WHERE
   SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
   SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A RISK AREA AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/03/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z