SPC AC 060524
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 PM CST WED NOV 05 2003
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 10 N ROW
   20 NNE TCC 45 SSW LBL 40 W END 15 ENE TUL 30 NNW UNO 15 SE SLO 45 E
   BMG 35 W UNI 15 NW HGR JFK ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 30 NNE MGR 40 SW
   MCN 25 SSE ANB 35 SSE GWO 25 SW TPL 15 NW SAT 30 ENE CRP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL
   ZONE SITUATED ON THE SRN EDGE OF THIS FAST FLOW. WHILE THE ERN
   EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
   AND THE APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING/FRACTURED
   PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY...FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID
   MS VALLEY TO SWRN TX...WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. AT LEAST
   TWO FAST MOVING IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
   WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AID UPWARD MOTION ALONG IT. THE
   FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY CROSSING THE OZARKS...WILL MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INDUCE WEAK WAVES OF LOW
   PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SECOND
   IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM CURRENTLY WELL
   WEST OF THE BAJA...WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME FROM WEST TX
   TO THE RED RIVER LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
   
   ...MS VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC...
   A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD FROM ERN AR TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
   FRONTAL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   THE CONVECTION WILL WANE FROM THE WEST AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
   PASSING THE UPPER IMPULSE INCREASES. HOWEVER...FORCING AND
   INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASINGLY FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE DAY FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO VA AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
   AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THESE AREAS. VERY MOIST LOW
   LEVEL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH 35-45KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND FOCUSED ASCENT
   NEAR LEE/FRONTAL WAVES MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER TSTMS IN A
   NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE NC/VA PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LOCATION
   PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT BUT
   A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER AREA MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...ERN NM/WEST TX TO OK...
   LATEST ETA...GFS...AND 21Z NCEP SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
   FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO EXPAND NWD AND EWD FROM ERN NM AND
   WRN TX FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS LOW LEVELS
   MOISTEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTENSIFIES PARCELS SHOULD REACH AN
   LFC IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 250-750 J/KG
   RANGE. WITH SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER/FRONTAL INVERSION REMAINING
   STRONGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF HAIL
   WILL EXIST. GIVEN TIME OF DAY...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING...WILL DEFER TO FUTURE
   OUTLOOKS FOR ANY INCREASE IN HAIL PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 11/06/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z