SPC AC 090053
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CST SAT NOV 08 2003
   
   VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ONP 35 SSE RDM
   NFL 50 SE BIH 40 SSE BFL 25 W SBA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SRQ 35 SW ORL
   10 N DAB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EWD/NEWD INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
   INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD E OF CLOSED
   CIRCULATION /CURRENTLY NEAR 40N AND 128W/ HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
   INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND...CURRENTLY EXTENDING
   FROM JUST SW OF SAC SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 50W OF MRY. 00Z OAK
   SOUNDING AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE E IN THE SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY /GENERALLY BELOW
   600MB/ AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   LATEST TRENDS IN DAX REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO
   A LINE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND. CURRENT THINKING IS
   THAT A COUPLE BOWING STRUCTURES/LEWPS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE
   AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN
   THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...AN ISOLATED COMMA HEAD TORNADO AND/OR
   MARGINAL WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS
   THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
   
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
   00Z MFL/TBW SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ONGOING ISOLATED/SCATTERED
   DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
   GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/09/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z