SPC AC 160616
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2003
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
   P07 35 SE HOB 30 W PVW 55 SSW GAG 35 NNE CSM 15 SSE OKC 25 S ADM 65
   WNW AUS 60 WSW COT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 30 SSE ROW
   35 WSW DHT 30 SSW GCK 30 SW HSI 25 W OLU 35 NNW OMA DSM 45 WSW BRL
   35 S BLV 55 SSE SDF 25 SE JKL 40 WNW HKY 25 SSE AND 40 NNE MGM 35
   ESE LUL 50 WNW GPT 30 S HUM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL TX TO SWRN
   OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ETA/ETAKF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
   TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CA IN THE
   BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES.  STRONG WNW UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN GREAT BASIN TODAY
   WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE GFS BEING
   FASTER WITH THE SRN CA TROUGH THAN THE ETA/ETAKF...AND PLACES THIS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NM/NRN MEXICO BY 12Z MONDAY.  DESPITE THESE
   MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
   SIMILAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN TX BY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING AS IT SPREADS
   NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
   
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
   WITHIN A WAA REGIME FROM ERN TX NEWD TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK WAA PERSISTS ALONG/
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  THE
   WRN EXTENT OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE
   ARKLATEX SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TO WRN TX...AND WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM
   FRONT TODAY...REACHING NRN TX/RED RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z.
   
   ...WRN/CENTRAL TX TO OK...
   A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE E-W
   FRONT IN TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS MOIST AIR MASS
   WILL RETREAT N AND W...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK TO SLY AND INCREASE
   TO 20-30 KT BY 00Z IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES.  THE WRN MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL
   BE DEFINED BY A DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM MAF SWD TO THE BIG BEND
   REGION OF TX.
   
   SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE INTO WRN TX
   THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF
   THE DRY LINE.  ETA/ETAKF SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SWRN/WRN TX BY 00Z
    WHICH WOULD AID IN INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AS STRONG MID/
   UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE
   APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE
   WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER WRN TX.  
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS OK INTO KS/MO/AR TONIGHT AND
   INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH INCREASING
   DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ABOVE A STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE SRN/
   CENTRAL PLAINS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE NNEWD AS INSTABILITY
   WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION...BUT NOT SUPPORT A SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 11/16/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z