SPC AC 171944
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003
   
   VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
   BRO 30 SSE COT 40 W HDO 30 NNW JCT 25 NNE ABI 35 S P28 BIE 40 NE OMA
   40 SW ALO MLI DEC PAH PAH MKL 35 SE HUM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ 45 WNW PLN
   35 ENE TVC 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 35 E TOL 40 S FDY 40 NW LUK 15 WNW
   SDF 10 NNW BNA 10 N TCL 20 SSW MEI BVE ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 60 NNW
   ABI 15 WNW CSM 40 W HUT 35 ENE OLU OTG 35 ESE AXN 30 WNW INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GJT 30 N EGE 25
   WSW FCL 35 E DEN 20 E PUB 10 WSW ALS 20 WNW DRO 50 NNE 4BL 10 W GJT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GULF COAST INTO
   SRN IA...
   
   ...TX COAST...
   
   MCS CLUSTER ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST HAS PROPAGATED AND ELONGATED
   NEWD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN LA
   WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ALONG RETREATING WARM
   FRONT. RAIN-COOLED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ANCHOR THIS CONVECTION
   FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
   GULF EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FEEDING UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO THE
   SOUTH-WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.  ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN FRINGES WHERE TORNADOES MAY
   OCCUR WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
   
   ...CENTRAL TX TO AR...
   
   CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ALONG A LINE FROM EAST OF SJT TO WEST OF
   ADM IN SRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   UPPER VORT SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX.  AIRMASS
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN TX INTO CENTRAL OK IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500J/KG WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
   THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ROTATION.  LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO
   BE ENHANCING THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
   ORGANIZE AS UPPER FLOW INCREASES OVER THE ARKLATX OVER THE NEXT
   6-9HR. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY ORGANIZE INTO A
   LINEAR MCS WITH BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND
   DAMAGING AS LINE OF STORMS LIFTS/DEVELOPS NEWD.  ISOLATED EMBEDDED
   STORMS MAY ROTATE WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
   LATE TONIGHT AS NRN/SRN STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE WRN GULF
   REGION.
   
   ...KS TO IA...
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS KS AHEAD OF BROAD CONFLUENCE
   ZONE BENEATH EXPANSIVE LAYERED CLOUDINESS.  ONE INTERESTING FEATURE
   IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS THE SW-NE BAND OF WEAK
   REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO WRN KS.  WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO WARM/DEEPEN OVER WRN KS WITHIN STRONGLY
   VEERED FLOW...IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SHARPEN
   SUFFICIENTLY TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   MOST RECENT VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH BOUNDARY
   LAYER CU THICKENING ALONG BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR OVER SERN NEB. 
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THIS REGION BUILDING SWWD INTO NERN
   KS.  LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
   THAT ORGANIZE ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 11/17/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z