STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 60 NE YUM
55 ESE EED 30 S GCN 60 WNW GUP 15 NNW GNT 25 ESE ONM 20 ESE ELP.
...SWRN U.S...
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE CA COAST...MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS AZ AND INTO NM.
WITH AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUPPORTS WEAK INSTABILITY.
...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY...
WLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WAA/ASCENT FOR SCATTERED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION INTO NRN MS/NRN AL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO
WEAK FOR MORE THAN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
AND A FORECAST THUNDER IS THEREFORE NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
..EVANS.. 01/19/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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