STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 15 W HDO
45 N SAT 30 W TPL 20 E SEP 20 NNE FTW 25 S PRX 20 N HEZ 30 SW LUL
30 E GPT.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 OVER THE
NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POLAR/ARCTIC AIR AT LOW LEVELS
OVER MOST OF THE NATION. COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS LATEST INVASION WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS
THE WRN GULF AND FAR S TX LATER WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF NEXT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPPING S
INTO THE WRN U.S. FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MORE OR LESS STATIONARY ALONG A WSW/ENE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
THE NWRN GULF.
...SRN/ERN TX INTO LA...
GRADUAL BACKING OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN SUBTROPICAL JET...EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UPLIFT N OF
RETURNING FRONT OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SRN/ERN TX ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE ETA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WITH TIME OVER PARTS OF E CNTRL TX...BELIEVE THAT THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH AND
SURFACE WAVE SHOULD KEEP SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
MOST OF THE STATE.
INCREASING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY LEAD
TO EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF TX EWD INTO LA. GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD YIELD HAIL.
FARTHER S...A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD INVOF COASTAL TROUGH/
SURFACE WAVE NEAR CRP AND/OR VCT. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN THIS
REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. BUT WITH
NEITHER CURRENT SATELLITE DATA NOR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH ENOUGH
AMPLITUDE TO MOVE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE...THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS REMOTE ATTM.
..CORFIDI.. 02/04/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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