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Feb- 4-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 15 W HDO
   45 N SAT 30 W TPL 20 E SEP 20 NNE FTW 25 S PRX 20 N HEZ 30 SW LUL
   30 E GPT.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 OVER THE
   NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POLAR/ARCTIC AIR AT LOW LEVELS
   OVER MOST OF THE NATION.  COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THIS LATEST INVASION WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN GULF
   OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  IT SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS
   THE WRN GULF AND FAR S TX LATER WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER
   FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF NEXT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPPING S
   INTO THE WRN U.S.  FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MORE OR LESS STATIONARY ALONG A WSW/ENE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
   THE NWRN GULF.
   
   ...SRN/ERN TX INTO LA...  
   GRADUAL BACKING OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK
   DISTURBANCES IN SUBTROPICAL JET...EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UPLIFT N OF
   RETURNING FRONT OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SRN/ERN TX ON WEDNESDAY. 
   WHILE THE ETA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY WITH TIME OVER PARTS OF E CNTRL TX...BELIEVE THAT THIS
   MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH AND
   SURFACE WAVE SHOULD KEEP SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
   MOST OF THE STATE. 
   
   INCREASING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY LEAD
   TO EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE
   MIDDLE AND UPPER GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF TX EWD INTO LA.  GIVEN
   RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
   COULD YIELD HAIL.
   
   FARTHER S...A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD INVOF COASTAL TROUGH/
   SURFACE WAVE NEAR CRP AND/OR VCT.  LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN THIS
   REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.  BUT WITH
   NEITHER CURRENT SATELLITE DATA NOR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE 
   PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH ENOUGH
   AMPLITUDE TO MOVE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE...THIS SCENARIO 
   SEEMS REMOTE ATTM.  
    
   ..CORFIDI.. 02/04/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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