STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW GLS 45 N VCT
35 N HDO 45 SSW SJT 35 NNE SJT 35 W MWL 50 ENE DAL 20 NW ELD
40 ESE GWO 25 ENE 0A8 20 WNW MCN 40 NW AGS 10 SSW CLT 20 NE GSO
60 ESE LYH 35 ESE RIC 30 SSW WAL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 25 NE SEA
30 SSW DLS 20 NW LMT 15 ENE RBL 20 NNW SAC 15 S MRY.
MIGRATORY PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ERODING
SOMEWHAT BY 13/18Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME SE OHIO EWD
INTO E CENTRAL VA. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT WILL EXTEND
OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY ON THEN EXTENDING OVER THE VA/NC AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 65-75 KT WILL
BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING OVER THE DELMARVA REGION AT THE
SAME TIME. AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE TO 2000 J/KG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. PROBLEM...HOWEVER...IS THAT SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WLY/WSWLY INDICATING A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
AROUND 6.5C/KM. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...NRN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF IMPULSE FROM BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA
FORECAST AROUND 6.5C/KM. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE AS WELL.
...SRN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO OK...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AFTER 14/00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. MUCH
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 35-45 KT FROM WEST CENTRAL
TX NWD THROUGH N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE
AIDED BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE FORCING WILL BE WEAK FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...YET THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD INTO SRN OK BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..MCCARTHY.. 03/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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