STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW PIE 30 N MLB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CTY 45 SE JAX.
...FL...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...WITH ETA/GFS SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED AREA
OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND 30-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON SUNDAY OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SUGGEST
THAT THREAT IS TOO MINIMAL TO OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
..HART.. 03/22/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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