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Apr-30-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 WNW GLS 50 ESE SAT 35 SW BWD 15 SE ADM 50 NE OKC 20 WSW OJC
   45 SW SBN 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 35 WNW SYR BGM 15 E CXY BKW
   35 NNE HSV 25 NNW JAN 20 SW LCH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO COT
   35 S SJT 25 W ADM 30 N OKC 40 WSW EMP CNK HLC TAD CEZ 30 SE MLF
   U31 30 ESE MHS 15 N 4BK ...CONT... 55 NW CTB 45 WNW MLS 15 SE RAP
   20 NW YKN MSN 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 CON 15 SE JFK DCA
   35 ENE HKY 30 SSE CLT 35 SW FAY 25 SSW ILM.
   
   
   ...TX-LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD IN ZONAL FLOW REGIME
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OH VALLEY
   THURSDAY EVENING. SURFACE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD THROUGH KS
   WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE WRN PORTION
   OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT FARTHER SWD INTO THE TX/OK IN WAKE OF
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH
   CNTRL AND SRN TX.
   
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
   IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID
   MS VALLEY NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA. ATMOSPHERE
   WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN TX
   AND ERN OK THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AS AXIS OF MID
   TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE NEWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MLCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 3500 TO
   4000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. FARTHER NE INTO THE OH VALLEY...GREATER 
   POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
   LESS INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
   
   STORMS WILL REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE OH VALLEY
   SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. BEST
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY DURING
   PEAK HEATING AS MID LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH
   SPREADS OVER THE AREA. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
   LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER NE INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   MODERATE WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE SEVERAL
   CLUSTERS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. 
   
   OTHER STORMS WILL MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL
   AND ERN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
   DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THIS
   AREA. GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW...
   STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THIS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM
   30 TO 35 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE
   OF CAPE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   THREATS.
   
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
   MODERATE RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW MUCH
   OF THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY EARLY CONVECTION.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/30/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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