STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S POE 40 NW HOU NIR HDO 20 W BWD SPS FSM 10 SSE CKV CRW CHO RDU
FLO ABY 20 SSW LUL 10 S POE.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAR
DGW 10 ENE RAP 45 NW MHN GLD LHX COS LAR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW LRD 45 ENE SJT
AMA TAD MTJ 4HV LAS 20 W LAX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 10 NNE PDX
35 N 4OM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW MOT BIS GRI
RSL P28 BVO SGF BMG 20 NNW DAY CLE.
...EAST TX INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TX
ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO TN. VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS FROM AR/LA
EASTWARD...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER
EAST TX WOULD INDICATE A GREATER RISK OF SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGION.
MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING DUE TO RATHER
WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO/WY WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
WEAK CAPE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICENT
FOR ROTATING STORMS IF INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
DCZ AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
..HART.. 05/01/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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