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May- 1-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 S POE 40 NW HOU NIR HDO 20 W BWD SPS FSM 10 SSE CKV CRW CHO RDU
   FLO ABY 20 SSW LUL 10 S POE.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAR
   DGW 10 ENE RAP 45 NW MHN GLD LHX COS LAR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW LRD 45 ENE SJT
   AMA TAD MTJ 4HV LAS 20 W LAX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 10 NNE PDX
   35 N 4OM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW MOT BIS GRI
   RSL P28 BVO SGF BMG 20 NNW DAY CLE.
   
   
   
   ...EAST TX INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
   BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH LOW
   AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. 
   PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TX
   ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO TN.  VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WILL LIE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
   THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG.  SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND WESTERN
   CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS FROM AR/LA
   EASTWARD...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER
   CELLS.  VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER
   EAST TX WOULD INDICATE A GREATER RISK OF SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGION.
   
   MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING DUE TO RATHER
   WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING. 
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO/WY WILL MAINTAIN A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION ON FRIDAY.  DESPITE
   WEAK CAPE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICENT
   FOR ROTATING STORMS IF INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
   DCZ AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY.  THIS ACTIVITY
   COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AS
   LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
   MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
    
   ..HART.. 05/01/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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