STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   KS...SE NE...SRN IA...MUCH OF MO AND AR...NE TX AND ERN OK TO THE
   RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TOP LNK OMA DSM OTM STL MDH 10 SE PAH MKL GLH
   SHV TYR PRX MKO TOP.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AUS
   SEP MLC EMP CNK 35 S EAR BBW 35 N BUB YKN 10 ENE MCW DBQ SDF LOZ
   HSS AND MCN LGC 0A8 JAN POE 50 SSE AUS AUS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL
   40 WSW AXN MSP AUW MBL 20 E MTC 10 WSW HLG CRW GSO SOP 30 ENE FLO
   15 WSW CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY VLD MGM LUL MCB 20 SSE LCH
   25 SSE LRD ...CONT... DRT SJT OKC PNC HUT 25 NNW GCK LAA
   35 WSW PUB 45 SW ALS 30 SSW FMN 70 SE PGA PGA SGU P38 TPH
   10 ESE NFL 4LW 10 ESE PDT 4OM 45 NNW 4OM.
   
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS EVOLVING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AS A
   STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
   PACIFIC...TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS
   UPPER JET PROPAGATES OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS REGION.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
   SOUTHERN JET WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EXIT REGION
   OF UPPER JET FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES
   EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND
   POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE FROM THE EASTERN
   PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE EXTENSIVE SQUALL
   LINE APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING STRENGTH AND
   TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...ALL INDICATE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   AND LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE OF SUFFICIENT
   MAGNITUDE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.  AREAS POTENTIALLY
   IMPACTED BY MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
   INCLUDE THE OMAHA NEB/DES MOINES IA/KANSAS CITY MO/TULSA OK
   METROPOLITAN AREAS AND POINTS EASTWARD.  THREAT MAY EXTEND
   SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX
   BY LATE EVENING...EASTWARD TOWARD THE MEMPHIS TN AREA OVERNIGHT...
   WHERE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE STRONG DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
   SUNDAY MORNING...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE LOWER/MID
   MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION WILL AUGMENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
   EAST/NORTHEAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
   AND LIFT WILL BE BASED IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...
   BUT CAPE/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
   MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING
   NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF DRY LINE.  DRY LINE WILL CURVE SOUTHWARD FROM
   CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW...THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS/NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AT MID DAY.  AS 90 KT WEST
   NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
   ...DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/WESTERN
   MISSOURI...WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY MAY FORM FIRST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
   LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...BEFORE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
   ALONG DRY LINE.  ALONG 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...WITH HODOGRAPHS AND LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
   
   MID-LEVEL CAP MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF CYCLONIC
   MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/THE MISSOURI OZARKS AT
   05/00Z...BUT INCREASING LIFT ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
   WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  INTENSE SQUALL LINE
   APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE...WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WINDS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS JUST AHEAD OF 70 TO 90 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   MODELS SUGGEST MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE
   ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. 
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  LOW/MID-LEVEL CAP WILL
   TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT
   LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN
   GEORGIA.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...MODERATE WEST
   NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS...ENHANCING
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
    
   ..KERR.. 05/03/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z