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May- 9-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN MO...IL...INDIANA...SRN
   LOWER MI...EXTREME SE WI...AND WRN OH TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 SW EVV 35 ESE POF 20 SSE UNO 45 NE COU 40 E DBQ 10 WNW MKE
   20 ESE MKG 10 SSW LAN 15 SSW DTW 10 SE MFD 20 W UNI 30 WSW LUK
   25 SW EVV.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 E ILM 20 SW RDU 45 S PSK 35 W TRI 30 NW HSV 15 NNW HEZ 55 S LFK
   20 SE CLL 45 N CLL 45 SSE DAL 20 NNW PRX 35 SW UMN 20 WNW SZL
   20 NE DSM 10 S LSE 50 NE GRB 25 SE APN ...CONT... 25 SW BUF
   15 N IPT 15 ESE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E U31 30 NNW MHS
   25 SSW EUG 15 NE PDX 30 W ALW 35 NE MQM 30 SSE LND FCL 40 NNW LIC
   20 SSE PUB 30 WSW ALS 45 N BCE 45 SSE ELY 10 E U31.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SYR 15 ESE ISP
   ...CONT... CRE 35 SSE CLT 35 NW AND 25 ENE ANB 25 S MEI 20 ENE BTR
   40 SSE LCH ...CONT... 45 SSE VCT 25 WSW NIR 25 ESE HDO 50 S SEP
   DUA 35 WSW JLN 20 SW FNB 25 NNW SUX 50 SE FAR 10 NE INL.
   
   ...MID MS/OH VALLEY AREA...
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENSIVE SEVERE
   WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY AREA ON SATURDAY.  A
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NV/UT WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ENEWD OVER THE MID MS
   VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT.  AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INVOF ERN KS WILL MOVE NNEWD TO WI/UPPER MI
   AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY BY EVENING...AND A COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW WILL
   SURGE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT.  RICH LOW-
   LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/IL/INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF MORNING WAA STORMS...AND
   CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
   SECTOR BY AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/. 
   
   EXPECT A BAND OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN MO INTO WRN IL...AND STORMS SHOULD
   THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EWD OVERNIGHT.  STRONG LINEAR FORCING...
   SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTORS ROUGHLY
   PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MAY TEND TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   SQUALL LINE WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...
   INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AS WELL AS IN THE
   EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.  THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND
   HEAVILY ON THE OCCURRENCE OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE
   EVENING NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW.
   
   ...UPPER OH TO MID ATLANTIC...
   MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OH VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
   APPALACHIANS...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE MID
   ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.  INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE DAY.
    
   ..THOMPSON.. 05/09/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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