STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PBG
30 WNW BWI 40 NNW GSO 40 S SPA SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PSX 15 WSW HDO
50 NNW DRT 30 WSW FST 15 SSW 4CR 15 NE FMN EGE 45 SSE LHX 25 W CSM
MLC 60 S HRO 20 NW MDH 20 NNW HUF 10 E SBN 40 N APN.
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE UNSEASONABLY LARGE
POLAR HIGH THAT MOVES EWD ACROSS NCENTRAL U.S. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT INITIALLY TUE AM FROM MI SWWD THRU THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO
SWRN TX WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TO S
TX BY 12Z WED.
THE FRONT WILL BE WELL S AND E OF THE STRONGER BAND OF WLYS WHICH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS A
RESULT THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOIST BUT
ONLY WEAKLY SHEARED. WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE ACROSS
THE ERN OH VALLEY INTO WRN NY/PA INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
DEEP MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES GENERALLY 6C/KM OR LESS.
GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.
..HALES.. 05/19/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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