STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW ALN 20 E PIA 40 WNW CGX 15 ESE AZO 50 SE DAY 20 ENE TRI
15 WSW HSS 30 NE CHA 30 SSE CKV 25 WSW PAH 40 W MDH 20 NW ALN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSE EED
70 SE U31 30 NW NFL 25 WNW TVL 55 NW SAC 40 ESE ACV 30 NNW DLS
55 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 10 NNW GCC 25 NNW MCK 35 ESE GAG
20 ESE AMA 45 W TCC 35 NNE ONM 40 SSE DMN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JFK 30 S RUT
20 N EFK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BUF IPT
10 SSW GSO 20 ESE AHN 40 SW HSV 20 NE LIT 25 S JLN 25 NNE MKC
15 SW ALO 35 N EAU 20 NNE ELO.
...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...
STRONG VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET NOW OVER SWRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN MOVING SEWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF WRN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE AND INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EWD INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG FROM THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF FRONT IN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...AND ALSO IN ZONE
OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. SWWD EXTENT OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP
AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMER AIR ALOFT S OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
...NWRN U.S....
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NNEWD INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS
OF ERN OR INTO NRN ID...AND SUFFICIENT FLOW/SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK
IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
...CNTRL ROCKIES...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SEWD INTO ERN CO/SWRN KS SUPPORTED
BY MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 05/29/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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