STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE TAD 40 N ALS 45 S CPR 20 NNE CPR 40 NE DGW 45 WSW SNY
15 NNE LAA 15 NE TAD.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 S SAV 55 SSE MCN 20 NW MCN 20 NW AHN 20 S PSK 25 W IPT
20 SW MSV 10 NNE JFK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 7R4 40 NNW ESF
40 NNE GLH 25 ENE HSV 35 WNW BLF PKB 15 SE FDY 30 SSE MTC 10 W ART
20 WNW LEB 20 S PSM ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 35 S VLD PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 35 SE Y22
25 NNW END 25 W AMA 25 SE MAF 25 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 S DUG
20 SSW FLG CNY 45 N EVW OWY BNO 15 ENE ALW 55 NE 63S.
...CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...
A STRONG VORT MAX AND 80 KT MID LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO
THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE ERN U.S. SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER PA SWWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THEN WWD INTO THE SERN U.S..
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
FROM PA SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. LINES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODES WITH THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD DURING THE MORNING. UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS WILL BE PRIMARY COMPLICATING
FACTOR. ONE SCENARIO IS THAT THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALONG FRONT OR LEE TROUGH AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS. COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
N OF THE JET AXIS IN MID ATLANTIC SUGGEST UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR. FARTHER S INTO THE CAROLINAS...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY
DUE TO WARMER AIR ALOFT. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE 50S OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND VALUES INCREASING TO THE 60S DOES NOT SEEM
UNREASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD
ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE NOW RESIDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JETS WITH DEEP SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY FROM 300 TO 400 M2/S2 ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. THUS...WHERE SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY INCLUDING
LINES/BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
...CNTRL ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST N OF SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM NRN CO INTO WY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER TOP OF THIS FEATURE. THUS STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SPREAD EWD INTO INSTABILITY
AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ALSO STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR FROM NRN CO
INTO NRN WY MAY HELP STORMS TO ORGANIZE AS THEY DEVELOP EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EVENING.
...SERN U.S....
STORMS MAY ALSO BE DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT
FROM GA WWD THROUGH AL AND MS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT...POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER CAP AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING LIFTING N OF THIS
AREA RAISES UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WIND AND LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. HAVE INCLUDED MOST OF THIS AREA IN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES...
BUT IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN SUSTAINED STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...THE SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WWD.
..DIAL.. 05/30/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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