STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNW GGW 25 NNW BIL 35 NE WEY 35 SE MQM 35 ESE SUN 35 NW TWF
30 SSW BOI 45 NW BOI 15 SSE S80 20 SSW FCA 45 NNE FCA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 WNW LFK
15 SSE PRX 35 WNW MLC 40 WNW OKC 20 NE CDS 60 NW ABI 55 W ABI
30 NNE P07 25 SW FST 45 SSE GDP 15 ESE ALM 25 WNW ABQ 40 SW 4BL
45 E U24 20 NE ENV 60 SE BAM U31 20 W TPH 55 ESE BIH 60 SSE BIH
40 E FAT 40 NE MER 30 NNE SAC 15 NW RBL 30 SSW LMT 50 NNW 4LW
45 SSW PDT 15 ENE GEG 15 N 63S 20 WNW 4OM 55 NE SEA 15 NW SEA
20 SSE UIL ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 50 W Y22 35 NW BBW 25 WNW BIE
15 SE STJ 10 ESE UIN 25 NNW DNV 40 SSE AZO 40 NE MTC.
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND NRN
ROCKIES...A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD
FROM SRN CANADA...MERGES WITH SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND
PROMOTES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS BY
EARLY FRIDAY AS BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
IN THE WEST...STRENGTHENING AND DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS A NUMBER OF
UPSTREAM IMPULSES...INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC...CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND.
...ID/WRN MT...
BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
WA/ORE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND AND BE LOCATED ACROSS
ID/WRN MT AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. ETAKF WAS FCSTG MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW...STRONG FORCING FOR SLOPED
ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERAL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FROM THE BOI AREA NEWD TO
N-CNTRL MT.
...OH VALLEY...
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY PROMPTING INCREASING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/WEAK LAPSE RATE
AIRMASS. 12 UTC ETA RUNS APPEAR TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
CORRIDOR OF GREATER SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE IF GREATER HEATING IS REALIZED.
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AOA 30KT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW HAIL/WIND
EVENTS POSSIBLE.
...SOUTHEAST...
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS FROM THE TN VALLEY EAST AND SOUTH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. WEAK CAP AND
PRESENCE OF REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOWS WILL AID STORM
INITIATION. LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND 25-30KT MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH AN ISOLD TO SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE HAZARD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..CARBIN.. 06/18/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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