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Jun-20-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 NW ELO 65 ENE STC 30 NW MCW 25 E OMA 25 NE SLN 15 S P28
   40 E LBL 30 SE GLD 40 ESE AIA 30 E RAP 35 W BIS 70 NE MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE EWN
   50 NNE RWI 40 S MRB 35 NNE CXY 25 SSE MSV 15 SW HYA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 10 E JAX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CMX
   35 ESE VOK 20 NNE BRL 40 SSE SZL 20 SSE JLN 40 WSW MLC 40 NNE SJT
   10 WNW BGS 40 SSW LBL 45 W SNY 10 SW LAR 45 ESE RKS 35 SSW BPI
   40 SW DLN 85 ENE 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 45 ENE LFK
   25 SSE MLU 25 E JAN 15 E PNS.
   
   
   
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST QUARTER OF CONUS WITH UPPER LOW CENTER
   INITIALLY SRN ALBERTA WILL SHIFT EWD DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW
   CENTER MOVES NEWD INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE
   LOW ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTS EWD AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SAT
   AM OVER ERN MT SWWD INTO UT  MOVES ACROSS NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO
   CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SAT NIGHT. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD TO WRN KS BY SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG
   30-40 KT SLY FLOW E OF LEE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT A VERY MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS NWD THRU ERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ..DAKOTAS/NWRN MN...
   AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF PLAINS TO E OF COLD FRONT SATURDAY AS STRONGER
   SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO
   NRN PLAINS.  EFFECT WILL BE TO INITIALLY PROVIDE A LID TO SURFACE
   BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ENHANCING INSTABILITY.  BY
   MID AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 80S/LOW 90S...MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON E OF DRY
   LINE ACROSS  DAKOTAS INTO NEB. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON AIDED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
   COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
   FORM DAKOTAS. 
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SFC-6KM...FROM 30-40KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO SHORT
   LINE/BOWS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO NWRN MN BY EVENING.  SUPERCELLS
   ARE LIKELY EARLY ON IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH ISOLATED
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECTED VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   CAP WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE EFFECTIVE IN SUPPRESSING SURFACE BASED
   STORMS FURTHER S ALONG DRY LINE.  HOWEVER WITH AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE  WELL INTO THE 90S VICINITY  DRY
   LINE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH WEAKER MID/UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH
   PULSE DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
    
   ..HALES.. 06/20/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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