STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW ELO 65 ENE STC 30 NW MCW 25 E OMA 25 NE SLN 15 S P28
40 E LBL 30 SE GLD 40 ESE AIA 30 E RAP 35 W BIS 70 NE MOT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE EWN
50 NNE RWI 40 S MRB 35 NNE CXY 25 SSE MSV 15 SW HYA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 10 E JAX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CMX
35 ESE VOK 20 NNE BRL 40 SSE SZL 20 SSE JLN 40 WSW MLC 40 NNE SJT
10 WNW BGS 40 SSW LBL 45 W SNY 10 SW LAR 45 ESE RKS 35 SSW BPI
40 SW DLN 85 ENE 63S.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 45 ENE LFK
25 SSE MLU 25 E JAN 15 E PNS.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST QUARTER OF CONUS WITH UPPER LOW CENTER
INITIALLY SRN ALBERTA WILL SHIFT EWD DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW
CENTER MOVES NEWD INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTS EWD AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SAT
AM OVER ERN MT SWWD INTO UT MOVES ACROSS NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SAT NIGHT. LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD TO WRN KS BY SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG
30-40 KT SLY FLOW E OF LEE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS NWD THRU ERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
..DAKOTAS/NWRN MN...
AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF PLAINS TO E OF COLD FRONT SATURDAY AS STRONGER
SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO
NRN PLAINS. EFFECT WILL BE TO INITIALLY PROVIDE A LID TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ENHANCING INSTABILITY. BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S/LOW 90S...MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON E OF DRY
LINE ACROSS DAKOTAS INTO NEB. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AIDED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM DAKOTAS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SFC-6KM...FROM 30-40KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO SHORT
LINE/BOWS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO NWRN MN BY EVENING. SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY EARLY ON IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECTED VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
CAP WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE EFFECTIVE IN SUPPRESSING SURFACE BASED
STORMS FURTHER S ALONG DRY LINE. HOWEVER WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S VICINITY DRY
LINE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH WEAKER MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH
PULSE DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
..HALES.. 06/20/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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